3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2008
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 05/08/2008
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MAIN FEATURES
'What if'....? Future scenarios The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
2 The July seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than June. The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes. SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES In trend terms in June 2008, short-term resident departures (484,700 movements) recorded a small increase compared with May 2008 (483,800 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 7.0% higher than in June 2007. The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during June 2008. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for June 2008 and June 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (35.3%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by China (8.2%).
'What if'....? Future scenarios The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
2 The July seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than June. The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes. PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005). There were 13,050 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during June 2008, a decrease of 4.5% compared with June 2007 (13,670 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (18%), followed by people born in India (12%), the United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man (12%) and China (10%). There were 5,200 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during June 2008, an increase of 6.1% compared with June 2007 (4,900 movements). INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENTS - 2007-08 In the year ended June 2008 there were a record 23.6 million crossings of Australia's international borders by travellers (original series). This represented 1,113 crossings per 1,000 Australian population. The majority of movements were short-term (96%). Short-term movements have a duration of stay in Australia or absence from Australia of less than one year. Ten years ago (1997-98) there were 14.9 million crossings by travellers, representing 802 crossings per 1,000 Australian population. Just over half of the total movements in 2007-08 were arrivals to Australia (11.9 million). They were comprised of 5.7 million Australian residents returning after a short-term absence from Australia and 5.6 million visitors arriving for a short-term stay and 582,040 permanent and long-term arrivals. Just under half of the total movements in 2007-08 were departures from Australia (11.7 million). They were comprised of 5.7 million each for Australian residents departing short-term and for visitors departing Australia after a short-term stay. A further 303,000 permanent and long-term departures were recorded. A traveller may cross Australia's borders many times in a year and each movement is counted in these statistics. See the first paragraph of the PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS section above. Short-term visitor arrivals Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series. Over the ten year period ending June 2008 trend estimates, while showing monthly fluctuations, have recorded strong long-term growth. The high point during this period was in February 2007 (474,800 movements) and the low point was in September 1998 (348,000 movements). Irregular impacts on the short-term visitor arrivals series are demonstrated by the seasonally adjusted series. The graph below shows that over the ten years ending June 2008 a number of large variations were evident for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. World events that may have contributed to a decrease in travel to Australia include the terrorist attacks in the United States of America on 11 September 2001, the anticipation and commencement of hostilities in Iraq and the outbreak of SARS in Asia (both commencing in early 2003). The increase in movements in September 2000 was due to the Sydney Olympic Games. In original terms, 5.63 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia in the year ended June 2008. This was slightly less than the 5.64 million recorded in the year ended June 2007. Ten years ago (1997-98), 4.2 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia. The following table shows, for selected years, the top ten source countries (based on 2007-08) for short-term visitor arrivals. Currently, New Zealand is the largest contributor to short-term visitor arrivals to Australia representing 20% of all short-term visitor arrivals in the year ended June 2008 (16% in the year ended June 1998). Short-term visitor arrivals from Japan have halved over the ten-year period ending June 2008 (falling to 9% in 2008 from 19% in 1998).
Just under half of all short-term visitors to Australia in the year ended June 2008 stated the main reason for journey as holiday (49%), followed by visiting friends and relatives (21%) and business (12%). During this period the median age of short-term visitors was 39 years and the median duration of stay was 10 days. New South Wales was the intended state of stay for 39% of all short-term visitors to Australia in the year ended June 2008. The other intended destinations were Queensland (27%), Victoria (18%), Western Australia (10%), South Australia (3%) and the Northern Territory, the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania (each 1%). Short-term resident departures Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series. Except for the period between early 2001 and mid 2003 where movements fluctuated, trend estimates have recorded strong long-term growth over the ten years ending June 2008. The high point during this period was the current month, June 2008 (484,700 movements) and the low point was in June 1998 (262,200 movements). As with short-term visitor arrivals, short-term resident departures are also influenced by irregular impacts, as demonstrated in the seasonally adjusted series. The graph below shows that during the ten years ending June 2008 a number of variations are evident in the series. While specific reasons for all variations are not clear, some variations may be associated with world events that influence international travel; e.g. the terrorist attacks in the United States of America on 11 September 2001 and the subsequent disruption to air travel, the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq and the emergence of SARS (both commencing in early 2003). Additionally, the October 2002 Bali bombing and the second Bali bombing in October 2005 disrupted trends in short-term resident departures. In original terms, a record 5.7 million residents travelled overseas for short-term visits during the year ended June 2008. This compared with 5.1 million in the year ended June 2007. Ten years ago (1997-98), there were 3.0 million residents departing Australia short-term. The following table shows, for selected years, the top ten destinations (based on 2007-08) for short-term resident departures. Currently, New Zealand is the largest contributor to short-term resident departures from Australia, representing 16% of all short-term resident departures in the year ended June 2008 (14% in the year ended June 1998). Short-term resident departures to Thailand more than doubled when 2007-08 was compared with 1997-98 (up to 7% from 3%). Conversely, short-term resident departures to Indonesia nearly halved (down to 6% in 2007-08 from 11% in 1997-98). This fall in Australians travelling to Indonesia may be associated with the Bali bombings of 2002 and 2005).
Just over half of all short-term resident departures from Australia in the year ended June 2008 stated the main reason for journey as holiday (51%), followed by visiting friends and relatives (24%) and business (14%). The median age of all residents departing short-term was 42 years and the median duration of stay was 15 days. The most populous states were the largest contributors to short-term travel overseas in the year ended June 2008. Residents of New South Wales contributed the highest proportion of travellers (37%), followed by Victoria (24%), Queensland (18%), Western Australia (13%), South Australia (4%), the Australian Capital Territory (2%) and Tasmania and the Northern Territory (each 1%). In terms of the rate of movement for short-term resident departures there was considerable variation across the states and territories. The movement rate is the number of movements per 1,000 estimated resident population at 31 December 2007. Western Australia had the highest movement rate (351 movements per 1,000 population) followed by the Australian Capital Territory (322), New South Wales (301), Victoria (263), Queensland (238), the Northern Territory (221), South Australia (161) and Tasmania (131). Overall, the Australian movement rate was 269 short-term resident departures per 1,000 population. STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail. Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window.
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