MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during January 2010 (485,400 movements) increased 0.3% when compared with December 2009 (483,800 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 4.8% higher than in January 2009.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during January 2010. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for January 2010 and January 2009 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by the United States of America (15.8%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (6.9%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - January 2010
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Dec 09 to Jan 10	Jan 09 to Jan 10
Source countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	94.6	93.6	70.8	-0.2	-0.5
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	55.6	55.6	62.8	0.2	2.1
United States of America	43.1	41.6	38.8	-0.7	15.8
China	31.7	31.4	37.2	0.2	-3.4
Japan	30.1	29.5	28.0	-0.8	-6.9
Korea	15.6	15.1	20.9	1.8	6.0
Singapore	24.5	24.5	14.7	0.6	5.2
Germany	14.2	13.6	13.9	0.6	8.7
Canada	10.8	10.8	13.3	-0.5	9.1
Hong Kong	13.4	13.5	10.1	-0.7	0.1
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:

1 The February 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than January 2010.
2 The February 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than January 2010.

The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

The trend estimates series has been suspended for April 2009 and onwards. For further information please see the SUSPENSION OF SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES TREND ESTIMATES section on the NOTES page of this issue.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during January 2010.

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - January 2010
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Dec 09 to Jan 10	Jan 09 to Jan 10
Destination countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	np	88.8	88.9	np	np
Indonesia	np	57.5	53.5	np	np
United States of America	np	48.7	43.7	np	np
Thailand	np	41.8	38.9	np	np
Fiji	np	22.5	22.4	np	np
China	np	24.2	21.1	np	np
Japan	np	13.9	19.8	np	np
Malaysia	np	17.7	19.2	np	np
Singapore	np	21.0	19.1	np	np
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	np	34.9	18.3	np	np
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 11,470 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during January 2010, a decrease of 19.3% compared with January 2009 (14,210 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (19.7%), followed by people born in the UK, CIs & IOM (12.3%), China and India (each 10.1%).

There were 11,700 Australian residents who departed permanently from Australia during January 2010, an increase of 6.0% compared with January 2009 (11,040 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.