MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during February 2009 (465,000 movements) rose 0.9% when compared with January 2009 (461,100 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.7% lower than in February 2008.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during February 2009. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for February 2009 and February 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Malaysia (13.2%) while the highest percentage decreases were recorded by Korea (27.1%) and Japan (24.1%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - February 2009
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Jan 09 to Feb 09	Feb 08 to Feb 09
	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	55.1	58.4	79.3	0.7	-3.6
New Zealand	96.1	94.7	66.6	0.7	2.9
China	33.6	34.3	46.9	4.9	5.1
United States of America	37.0	37.2	44.6	-0.3	-3.3
Japan	31.5	34.6	38.0	-1.4	-24.1
Singapore	23.0	23.5	19.9	0.9	3.2
Malaysia	16.2	17.1	17.7	2.9	13.2
Germany	13.2	13.2	17.2	0.4	2.0
Korea	13.9	15.5	16.6	-1.3	-27.1
Canada	10.1	10.3	14.5	0.4	-0.4
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:

1 The March seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than February.
2 The March seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than February.

The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in February 2009, short-term resident departures (475,100 movements) decreased 0.5% compared with January 2009 (477,500 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 0.7% lower than in February 2008.

The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during February 2009. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for February 2009 and February 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (24.0%) while the highest percentage decreases were recorded by the United States of America (12.8%) and Thailand (10.4%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - February 2009
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Jan 09 to Feb 09	Feb 08 to Feb 08
	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	81.3	81.8	84.8	1.2	7.6
Thailand	30.9	32.7	25.8	-0.5	-10.4
Indonesia	37.7	38.1	25.3	2.7	24.0
United States of America	36.1	37.0	25.2	-2.6	-12.8
Singapore	18.8	19.7	16.3	1.0	2.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	33.6	33.9	15.7	-0.3	-5.2
Hong Kong	16.8	17.9	15.3	-1.2	-4.8
China	23.1	22.1	14.6	-0.3	-4.4
Japan	13.3	13.3	13.7	1.9	5.5
India	10.8	10.7	13.1	-1.3	-4.2
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:

1 The March seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than February.
2 The March seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than February.

The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 13,960 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during February 2009, an increase of 4.0% compared with February 2008 (13,420 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (15.5%), followed by people born in UK, CIs & IOM (13.7%), India (10.5%) and China (10.1%).

There were 5,620 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during February 2009, a decrease of 2.0% compared with February 2008 (5,730 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.