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COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE
The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).
The contribution to population growth for the year ended 31 December 2010 was higher for NOM (53%) than for natural increase (47%).
Natural increase for the year ended 31 December 2010 was 154,400 persons, a decrease of 1.8%, or 2,800 persons when compared with natural increase for the year ended 31 December 2009 (157,200 persons). This decrease was due to an increase in the number of deaths while the number of births remained steady.
The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 31 December 2010 (297,900 births) has remained unchanged from the figure for the year ended 31 December 2009 (297,900 births).
The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 31 December 2010 (143,500 deaths) was 2.0%, or 2,800 deaths, higher than the figure for the year ended 31 December 2009 (140,700 deaths).
Net Overseas Migration
For the year ended 31 December 2010, Australia's preliminary NOM estimate was 171,100 persons. This was 35% (93,100 persons) lower than the NOM recorded for the year ended 31 December 2009 (264,200 persons).
The recent decline in NOM is due to both a decrease in NOM arrivals and an increase in NOM departures for the year ended 31 December 2010 from the previous year.
NOM arrivals decreased by 13% (63,100 persons) between the years ended 31 December 2009 (495,100 persons) and 31 December 2010 (432,000 persons). This reflects a continuing decline in NOM arrivals since the peak of 536,000 persons recorded for the year ended 31 December 2008.
In addition, NOM departures increased by 13% (30,000 persons) between the years ended 31 December 2009 (230,900 persons) and 31 December 2010 (260,900 persons).
This trend is also reflected in comparisons between this reference quarter and the same quarter of the previous year. The preliminary NOM estimate for the December quarter 2010 (34,500 persons) was 30% (14,700 persons) lower than the estimate for the December quarter 2009 (49,200 persons). The decrease between December quarter 2009 and December quarter 2010 was the result of a 9,600 persons decline in NOM arrivals and a 5,000 persons increase in NOM departures.
STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH
The estimated resident population for each state and territory at 31 December 2010 was as follows:
All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 31 December 2010. Western Australia continued to record the fastest growth rate of all states and territories with 2.1%. Tasmania and the Northern Territory both recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.8%.
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE
At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.
Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 31 December 2010, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.
As illustrated in the graph above, for the year ended 31 December 2010, natural increase was the major component of population change in the Northern Territory (153%), followed by Tasmania (54%), the Australian Capital Territory (50%) and Queensland (49%). NOM was the major component of population change in South Australia (75%), followed by New South Wales (58%), Victoria (56%) and Western Australia (52%).
Estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).
The total number of births registered for the year ended 31 December 2010 increased for only half of the states and territories when compared with the previous year. Of those which recorded an increase in registered births, the Australian Capital Territory recorded the largest percentage increase at 4.3% (210 births). The largest percentage decrease of registered births was recorded in Tasmania at 2.8% (190 births). The Northern Territory recorded the same number of births as for the year ended 31 December 2009. For more information, see table 13.
The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 31 December 2010 increased for all states and territories when compared with the previous year. The largest percentage increase was recorded by the Northern Territory at 6.6% (60 deaths). Victoria recorded the smallest percentage increase in deaths for year ended 31 December 2010 with an increase of 0.2% (60 deaths). For more information, see table 14.
Net Overseas Migration
All states and territories recorded positive net overseas migration (NOM) for the year ended 31 December 2010. However, when compared to the previous year, all states and territories recorded a decrease in NOM. Proportionally, the Northern Territory recorded the largest decrease at 64% (1,300 persons), while Western Australia recorded the smallest decrease at 30% (10,400 persons). For more information, see table 16.
When compared to the year ended 31 December 2009, all states and territories recorded decreases in NOM arrivals. The largest percentage decrease was recorded by the Northern Territory at 20% (1,100 persons). The Australian Capital Territory recorded the smallest percentage decrease at 9% (730 persons). For more information, see table 16.
Conversely, all states and territories recorded increases in NOM departures. The largest percentage increase were recorded by Victoria and Tasmania at 16% each (8,100 and 350 persons respectively). The Northern Territory at 4% (140 persons) recorded the smallest percentage increase in NOM departures. For more information, see table 16.
Net Interstate Migration
For the year ended 31 December 2010, Queensland recorded the largest net gain from interstate migration with 7,200 persons. New South Wales recorded the largest net loss from interstate migration with 11,200 persons.
However, when comparing the years ended 31 December 2009 and 31 December 2010, net interstate migration recorded 6,300 persons fewer in Queensland and 2,600 persons more in New South Wales. This reflects a slowing of the rate at which Queensland is gaining from interstate migration and New South Wales is losing from interstate migration. For more information, see table 19.
STATISTICS FOR PARLIAMENTARY REPRESENTATION
It is expected that in September 2011, the Electoral Commissioner will request that the Australian Statistician provide a set of statistics for an electoral determination in accordance with the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. Population estimates required under section 46 (1B) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 are presented in table 8.
The following table shows the estimated net undercount, and associated standard errors, for the 2006 Census of Population and Housing as required by section 47 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. Population estimates have already been adjusted to account for estimated net undercount in the census. For the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory, in circumstances referenced to in section 48 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, the Electoral Commissioner will add twice the standard error of the estimate of net undercount to each Territory's population, and recalculate its electoral entitlement. For further information see Information Paper: Determining Seats in the House of Representatives - Legislative Requirements for Provision of ABS Statistics, Australia, 2005 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.002).
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