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MARCH QTR KEY FIGURES
MARCH QTR KEY POINTS
ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
POPULATION GROWTH RATES
All estimated resident population (ERP) data in this publication are based on the 2001 Census of Population and Housing (2001 census). Exceptions are tables 8 (excluding 2001 estimates), 17, 18 and 19 which are still based on the 1996 Census of Population and Housing (1996 census).
A cautionary note on net overseas migration is provided in the Main Features below.
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
The layout and content of this publication has changed. The major changes are detailed below.
Availability of discontinued data
Please note that the data provided in the above mentioned publications may not be in the exact format previously available from Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).
Customised requests may also be met. For further information telephone the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or email <firstname.lastname@example.org>.
Household estimates in tables 17, 18 and 19 are currently under review.
At any point in time this publication contains final, revised and preliminary data. Please see Explanatory Note 4 for the status of data in this issue.
DATA BASED ON 1996 CENSUS
Tables 8 (excluding 2001 estimates), 17, 18 and 19 are based on the 1996 census.
Length of stay in Australia for overseas visitors arriving is determined by the intended length of stay as reported on arrival in Australia. Similarly, length of stay overseas for Australian residents departing is based on the intended length of stay away as reported on departure from Australia. Changes between travellers intended and actual duration of stay (as measured with the subsequent movement across Australia's border) may result in a change in category of movement and is represented by a statistical adjustment term, 'category jumping' (see Glossary).
Net overseas migration is the difference between the number of permanent and long-term arrivals and the number of permanent and long-term departures plus an adjustment for category jumping.
In recent years there have been substantial changes in the patterns of passenger travel into and out of Australia, and this, combined with changes to passenger card design in July 1998, caused the ABS to become concerned about the quality of the adjustment used for category jumping. In March 2003, category jumping was set to zero from September quarter 1997 onwards, being 12 months before the introduction of a new passenger card design (see Demography Working Paper 2003/1 - Estimated Resident Population and the Measurement of Category Jumping).
The results of the 2001 census corrected for any measurement errors in net overseas migration on the estimated resident population up until 30 June 2001.
Historically, category jumping has oscillated around zero. However, it is now expected that category jumping will tend to be negative, resulting in an overstatement of net overseas migration. For example, international students arriving for long-term stays, may leave the country for short breaks and return for long-term stays again. These people will, in certain circumstances, be added to the population multiple times. Similarly, Australians working long-term overseas, but returning to Australia for short breaks, may be taken out of the population multiple times. Overall, travel patterns are such that multiple inclusions are expected to predominate over multiple exclusions.
The ABS is developing a new model for estimating category jumping. Initial indications are that this estimate will be negative and may be up to -20,000 for the full financial year 2001-02. The figure will vary by quarter, and might be slightly higher than average for the March quarter as there is a seasonal high in student arrivals in Australia in the March quarter. Just over half of all long-term arrivals for education in a year arrive in the March quarter.
The ABS is intending to release revised estimates of net overseas migration in the June 2003 edition of this publication to be released on 11 December 2003. This is expected to result in a downward revision in the levels of net overseas migration as reported in Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) from September quarter 2001 onwards.
STATES AND TERRITORIES
An error has been detected in the 2001 census count in Queensland in regards to the male and female prisoner populations. The error meant that female prisoners were incorrectly counted as male and male prisoners counted as female. This does not impact on Statistical Local Area (SLA), state or national ERPs but affects the sex ratios, particularly in SLAs with prisons.
The ABS is examining ways in which to implement the corrections with the aim to incorporate any changes by December 2003. This will include some changes to demographic and census information. The main items impacted by the error are statistics for selected SLAs and to a lesser degree population projections, fertility rates and sex ratios for Australia and Queensland.
The population of Australia's states and territories at March 2003 was as follows: New South Wales 6,691,800, Victoria 4,929,800, Queensland 3,774,300, South Australia 1,528,200, Western Australia 1,951,300, Tasmania 476,200, Northern Territory 197,100 and the Australian Capital Territory 323,800.
With the exception of the Northern Territory all states and the Australian Capital Territory recorded positive growth in the March quarter 2003. Queensland and Western Australia recorded the highest growth (each 0.6%) followed by Victoria (0.5%), Tasmania (0.4%) and New South Wales, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory (each 0.3%). The Northern Territory recorded a loss (-0.1%). The Northern Territory loss was mainly due to increased interstate migration losses (-1,200).
Similarly, for the year ended March 2003 the Northern Territory was the only state or territory to record negative growth (-0.2%). The highest positive growth was recorded by Queensland (2.4%) and the lowest by South Australia (0.6%).
In March quarter 2003 Queensland, Victoria and Tasmania all recorded net interstate migration gains. While Queensland and Victoria have increased population by net interstate migration for a number of years this was only the second quarterly increase experienced by Tasmania since September quarter 1991 (100 persons). The other increase was in December quarter 2002. Queensland had a gain of 7,700 persons, Victoria 1,200 persons and Tasmania 800 persons. New South Wales lost the highest number of persons (-7,100) followed by the Northern Territory (-1,200), South Australia (-500) and Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory (each -400).
This quarterly pattern was reflected in net interstate migration for the year ended March 2003. Gains were recorded for Queensland (37,800), Victoria (2,400) and Tasmania (800) while losses were recorded for New South Wales (-30,700), Northern Territory (-3,600), Western Australia (-3,500), South Australia (-1,800) and the Australian Capital Territory (-1,500).
1 Category jumping relates to those persons who change their travel arrangements from short-term to permanent/long-term or vice versa.
TABLE 1 - POPULATION CHANGE, Summary(a)
(a) See Explanatory Notes for concepts used and the Glossary for definitions of terms used. Includes Other Territories from September 1993 - see paragraph 2 of the Explanatory Notes.
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