2077.0 - Census of Population and Housing: Understanding the Increase in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Counts, 2016  
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CHANGE NOT EXPLAINED BY DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS

Key findings
  • After accounting for births, deaths and net migration, 21.4% of the 100,803 increase in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons counted in the 2016 Census could not be explained by demographic factors (referred to as unexplainable change).
  • 5-14 year olds contributed the most to the unexplainable change.
  • Growth in rates of unexplainable change is primarily occurring in Major Cities and Inner Regional areas. There is negative unexplainable change in Outer Regional, Remote and Very Remote areas.
  • Across states and territories, unexplainable change is being driven by changes in New South Wales and Queensland. Australia’s two most populous states had age cohort patterns of unexplainable change that closely matched the national distribution.


Between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses, there was change that could not be explained by demographic factors. This is referred to in this chapter as unexplainable change. The factors that may contribute to the unexplainable change are discussed in Changing Propensity to Identify, where we explore identification- particularly of children and families where Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons have partnered with non-Indigenous persons. There are a number of other factors in how Censuses are enumerated that can contribute to unexplainable change. These include coverage and response rates.Technical Note 1 – Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Status and the Census and Technical Note 2 – The Undercount in the Census and the PES for a discussion of these factors, including the Census undercount for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons.

At the national level, the proportion of the unexplainable change as a percentage of the 2016 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons was 3.3% between 2011 and 2016, slightly lower than between 2006 and 2011 (5.1%).

This chapter will:

    • Examine key components of the unexplainable change between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses by accounting for measurable demographic factors of population change.
    • Investigate the impact of the 2011-2016 intercensal change on the final Estimated Resident Population (ERP) figures for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians.

FRAMEWORK FOR MEASURING UNEXPLAINABLE CHANGE

The unexplainable change is the difference between the observed intercensal increase and the proportion of that increase that can be explained by demographic factors.


Graphic: Change not explained by demographic factors





The proportion of intercensal change attributable to unexplainable change is expressed in two ways:
    • As a proportion of the 2016 Census count
    • As a proportion of the difference between 2011 and 2016 Census counts

It is possible for the unexplainable change to be negative if the explainable components of the increase are larger than the total intercensal difference. For example, we may expect to see a certain population in an area based on the previous Census counts, natural increase and migration but actual counted less people than this in 2016. This will result in a negative unexplainable change.

As discussed in the Change Explained by Demographic Factors, 78.6% of the intercensal increase can be explained by demographic factors. The analysis in this chapter utilises Census data and ABS Registered Births and Deaths data to approximate unexplainable change for each age cohort. To do this, an expected 2016 population has been calculated based on the 2011 Census counts adjusted for births, deaths and migration. The expected 2016 population has then been compared to the actual 2016 Census population to provide a measure of unexplainable change. The methodology, also termed the Framework for Measuring Unexplainable Change is outlined in detail in the Explanatory Notes of this publication.


UNEXPLAINABLE CHANGE BY AGE

3.1 Unexplainable change by age cohort, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, 2016

2016 Census Count(a)(b)
Expected Count(c)
Unexplained Change(d)
Contribution to Overall
Unexplained Change(e)

Age in 2016 Census
no.
%

0-4 years
73 265
91 092
–17 827
–82.8
5-9 years
75 755
67 478
8 277
38.4
10-14 years
71 378
64 995
6 383
29.6
15-19 years
66 266
64 723
1 543
7.2
20-24 years
57 452
59 028
–1 576
–7.3
25-29 years
47 934
46 336
1 598
7.4
30-34 years
40 927
38 650
2 277
10.6
35-39 years
35 401
32 692
2 709
12.6
40-44 years
36 994
33 411
3 583
16.6
45-49 years
36 034
32 695
3 339
15.5
50-54 years
31 381
27 676
3 705
17.2
55-59 years
25 897
23 058
2 839
13.2
60-64 years
19 541
17 316
2 225
10.3
65-69 years
13 722
12 254
1 468
6.8
70-74 years
8 129
7 498
631
2.9
75-79 years
4 689
4 385
304
1.4
80-84 years
2 677
2 481
196
0.9
85 years and over
1 734
1 900
–166
–0.8

Total
649 171
627 640
21 531
100.0

(a) Usual Residence Census Counts. Excludes overseas visitors.
(b) Includes Other Territories. Please note in 2016, this includes Norfolk Island.
(c) In order to measure the unexplained change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas immigration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count.
(d) The expected 2016 count is compared to the actual 2016 Census count.
(e) Calculated as a proportion of total 2011-2016 unexplained change. Negative unexplainable change occurs when the explainable components of the increase are larger than the total intercensal difference.
Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0)
Sources: Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016; ABS Birth Registrations; ABS Death Registrations

The age cohort analysis discussed in Overview of the Increase demonstrated that 0-4 year olds were the group that contributed most to the overall intercensal increase between 2011 and 2016.

The framework for measuring unexplainable change allows for a comparison of the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons aged from 0-4 as counted by the 2016 Census with registered Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births as recorded in the intercensal period. There was a noticeable difference in the 2016 Census count in 0-4 year olds compared to ABS Registered Births (ABS cat. no. 3301.0). Refer to this publication for information on the collection of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander status in births data.

Traditionally a net undercount (5.1% in 2016) of 0-4 year olds has been observed in the overall Australian population. One known reason for this is young children being mistakenly omitted from Census forms in responding households. However, it is also possible that we are observing the effects of delayed identification of children. When examining unexplainable change by age cohort, we see fewer 0-4 year olds than expected but also many more 5-14 year olds than expected. How parents and children in the same family identify is explored in depth in Changing Propensity to Identify.

UNEXPLAINABLE CHANGE BY REMOTENESS

Major Cities and Inner Regional areas recorded positive rates of unexplainable change between 2011 and 2016.

Conversely between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses there was negative unexplainable change in Outer Regional, Remote and Very Remote areas. This means that there were less people counted in these areas than we would expect based on natural increase and migration.

3.2 Unexplainable change by Remoteness, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons, 2011-2016(a)(b)(c)

no.%

Major Cities13 8565.7
Inner Regional10 9487.0
Outer Regional-8 235-6.4
Remote-4 057-10.1
Very Remote-5 231-6.6
Australia(d)21 5313.3

(a) Usual Residence Census Counts. Excludes overseas visitors.
(b) Unexplainable change is the difference between two Census counts that cannot be explained by demographic factors of population change. Negative unexplainable change occurs when the explainable components of the increase are larger than the total intercensal difference.
(c) Proportions calculated based on the 2016 Census count.
(d) Includes Other Territories. Please note in 2016, this includes Norfolk Island.
Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0)
See Datacube Explainable and Unexplainable change, Table 2.2
Source: Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016

Major Cities

Major Cities have the largest Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and are the major driver of unexplainable change at the national level, contributing close to or more than half of national cohort growth in 13 of the 18 age cohorts.

Whilst there was a small increase in total counts of persons in the 20-24 year age cohort between 2011 and 2016, once factors of explainable change are incorporated this changes to a small decrease. This main driver of the change in this cohort was positive net-migration suggesting that migration is the main influence on the growth in Census counts in this age cohort rather than changes in identification.


Graph Image for 3.3 Unexplainable change(a) by age cohort as a contribution to total increase population, Major Cities, 2011-2016

Footnote(s): (a) In order to measure the unexplainable change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas migration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count. The expected 2016 count is then compared to the actual 2016 Census count. (b) Includes Other Territories. Please note in 2016, this includes Norfolk Island. Norfolk Island was not in scope for 2011. Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0).

Source(s): Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016, ABS Birth Registrations, ABS Death Registrations


Inner Regional Areas

Inner Regional areas also made a large contribution to the overall unexplainable increase. The age cohort distribution of unexplainable change is similar to that observed for Major Cities. There are however, some key differences when analysing the size and overall contribution of the cohorts.

While there were still less 0-4 year olds in the Census than in the registered births data, the difference was proportionally much smaller than in other remoteness areas. The deficit in Inner Regional areas contributed only 12.0% of the total national unexplainable change for this cohort, which is much lower than the proportion of the overall Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population that live in Inner Regional areas (24.0%).

Graph Image for 3.4 Unexplainable change(a) by age cohort as a contribution to total increase population, Inner Regional, 2011-2016

Footnote(s): (a) In order to measure the unexplainable change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas migration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count. The expected 2016 count is then compared to the actual 2016 Census count. (b) Includes Other Territories. Please note in 2016, this includes Norfolk Island. Norfolk Island was not in scope for 2011. Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0).

Source(s): Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016, ABS Birth Registrations, ABS Death Registrations

Outer Regional Areas

Despite recording a growth in Census counts of 7.9% between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses, there is negative unexplainable change in Outer Regional Areas. The large unexplainable increase in 5-14 year olds observed nationally and in both Major Cities and Inner Regional areas is negligible in Outer Regional areas. While growth can be observed in the actual Census counts, once net gains in inter-regional migration are accounted for there is almost no change.


Graph Image for 3.5 Unexplainable change(a) by age cohort as a contribution to total increase population, Outer Regional, 2011-2016

Footnote(s): (a) In order to measure the unexplainable change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas migration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count. The expected 2016 count is then compared to the actual 2016 Census count. (b) Includes Other Territories. Please note in 2016, this includes Norfolk Island. Norfolk Island was not in scope for 2011. Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0).

Source(s): Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016, ABS Birth Registrations, ABS Death Registrations


Remote and Very Remote Areas

Remote and Very Remote areas recorded a small increase in counts between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses (2.0%), and a negative unexplainable change is observed in most age cohorts in both Remoteness areas.

Remote areas recorded a negative unexplainable change of 4,057 persons. This was mostly due to less 0-4 year olds than expected due to demographic factors. In older age groups there was very little intercensal movement, with negligible differences for persons 50 years and older.

Very Remote areas recorded a negative unexplainable change of 5,231 persons. Unlike Remote areas this was spread across almost all age cohorts, with negative unexplainable change observed in 16 of the 18 cohorts.

One potential explanation for low population growth in Remote and Very Remote areas is inter-regional migration. However, an analysis of inter-regional migration from the Census 2016 shows that this is not a factor in the population change in these areas. The net migration impact (including overseas migration) on Remote areas was a decrease of 435 persons. In Very Remote areas the migration impact was positive with a net inflow of 202 persons from 2011.


Graph Image for 3.6 Unexplainable change by age cohort , Remote and Very Remote, 2011-2016(a)

Footnote(s): (a) In order to measure the unexplainable change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas migration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count. The expected 2016 count is then compared to the actual 2016 Census count. (b) Includes Other Territories. Please note in 2016, this includes Norfolk Island. Norfolk Island was not in scope for 2011. Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0).

Source(s): Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016, ABS Birth Registrations, ABS Death Registrations


UNEXPLAINABLE CHANGE IN STATES AND TERRITORIES

At the national level, the proportion of the unexplainable change as a percentage of the total 2016 census count for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons was 3.3% between 2011 and 2016, slightly lower than between 2006 and 2011 (5.1%). This proportion varied by jurisdiction, with proportions higher than the national rate observed in New South Wales (9.3%), Tasmania (6.9%) and Victoria (5.1%).


3.7 Unexplainable change by State and Territory, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander persons, 2011-2016(a)

Census count
Intercensal change
Demographically explainable change
Unexplainable change(b)

2011
2016
2011-2016
2011-2016
2011-2016(d)
Natural increase(c)
Overseas migration
Interstate migration
Total demographically explainable change

no.
no.
%
no.
no.
%
no.
%

New South Wales
172 625
216 176
43 551
25.2
24 814
655
–2 012
23 457
53.9
20 094
9.3
Victoria
37 992
47 788
9 796
25.8
6 166
278
908
7 352
75.1
2 444
5.1
Queensland
155 826
186 482
30 656
19.7
23 014
573
1 525
25 112
81.9
5 544
3.0
South Australia
30 432
34 184
3 752
12.3
3 869
92
282
4 243
113.1
–491
–1.4
Western Australia
69 664
75 978
6 314
9.1
11 480
197
213
11 890
188.3
–5 576
–7.3
Tasmania
19 625
23 572
3 947
20.1
2 462
52
–200
2 314
58.6
1 633
6.9
Northern Territory
56 779
58 248
1 469
2.6
4 699
48
–961
3 786
257.7
–2 317
–4.0
Australian Capital Territory
5 184
6 508
1 324
25.5
777
65
263
1 105
83.5
219
3.4

Australia(e)
548 368
649 171
100 803
18.4
77 303
1 969
. .
79 272
78.6
21 531
3.3

(a) Usual Residence Census Counts. Excludes overseas visitors.
(b) Unexplainable change is the difference between two Census counts that cannot be explained by demographic factors of population change. Negative unexplainable change occurs when the explainable components of the increase are larger than the total intercensal difference.
(c) Registered births minus registered deaths.
(d) Unexplainable change as a proportion of the 2016 Census counts.
(e) Includes Other Territories. Please note in 2016, this includes Norfolk Island.
. . not applicable
Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0)
See Datacube Explainable and Unexplainable change, Table 2.1
Source: Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016


The increase in the Census counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Western Australia, the Northern Territory and South Australia between 2011 and 2016 was lower than expected. Once measureable change was factored in, unexplainable change was negative in these regions.

The possible reasons for Census counts being lower than expected in some geographic areas include:

    • Parents may have identified their children as being of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin in birth registrations but not in the 2011 and 2016 Censuses, or have moved interstate after their child's birth was registered
    • A person may have moved between Indigenous Regions between the 2011 and 2016 Census and did not record their previous address in the 2016 Census
    • Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander persons may have been missed from being counted in the Census due to variation in Census coverage and response rates.

New South Wales

New South Wales has a similar pattern of unexplainable change by age cohort to that observed nationally. It also has the largest population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians of the states and territories.

Minor differences can be observed in the 0-4 year age group with a relatively smaller difference in numbers of 0-4 year olds between the Census and ABS Registered Birth data in NSW. NSW contributed only 20.0% of the national difference in 0-4 year olds whereas NSW contributes 33.3% of the national population.

New South Wales also saw a small positive unexplainable change for the 20-24 year old cohort. This was driven by negative net intercensal migration in this age group which acted to counter the national trend in this cohort towards reduced rates of identification.


Graph Image for 3.8 Age cohort unexplainable change, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, New South Wales and Australia, 2011-2016(a)(b)

Footnote(s): (a) Usual residence Census counts. Excludes overseas visitors. (b) In order to measure the unexplainable change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas migration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count. The expected 2016 count is then compared to the actual 2016 Census count. (c) Includes Other Territories. Please note in 2016, this includes Norfolk Island. Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0).

Source(s): Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016


Victoria

There was a small negative unexplainable change observed for 20-24 year olds in Victoria. This is the result of adjustments for positive net interstate migration. All other age cohorts exhibited a similar pattern to that observed nationally.


Graph Image for 3.9 Age cohort unexplainable change, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, Victoria and Australia, 2011-2016(a)(b)

Footnote(s): (a) Usual residence Census counts. Excludes overseas visitors. (b) In order to measure the unexplainable change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas migration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count. The expected 2016 count is then compared to the actual 2016 Census count. (c) Includes Other Territories. Please note in 2016, this includes Norfolk Island. Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0).

Source(s): Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016


Queensland

Queensland is home to almost a third of Australia’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Like NSW, it exhibits an almost identical unexplainable change pattern across all age cohorts to that observed nationally.

Graph Image for 3.10 Age cohort unexplainable change, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, Queensland and Australia, 2011-2016(a)(b)

Footnote(s): (a) Usual residence Census counts. Excludes overseas visitors. (b) In order to measure the unexplainable change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas migration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count. The expected 2016 count is then compared to the actual 2016 Census count. (c) Includes Other Territories. Please note in 2016, this includes Norfolk Island. Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0).

Source(s): Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016


South Australia

South Australia had almost no unexplainable change between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses (a decrease of 1.5%). Young children (0-4 year olds) were the main contributors to the state’s unexplainable change. Overall, there is very little evidence increased propensity to identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander is affecting population growth in SA.

Graph Image for 3.11 Age cohort unexplainable change, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, South Australia, 2011-2016(a)(b)

Footnote(s): (a) Usual residence Census counts. Excludes overseas visitors. (b) In order to measure the unexplainable change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas migration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count. The expected 2016 count is then compared to the actual 2016 Census count. Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0).

Source(s): Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016


Western Australia

Western Australia had the largest negative unexplainable change (a decrease of 7.3%). This was almost entirely a result of the difference in counts of 0-4 year olds in the Census in comparison with ABS Registered Births data.


Graph Image for 3.12 Age cohort unexplainable change, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, Western Australia, 2011-2016(a)(b)

Footnote(s): (a) Usual residence Census counts. Excludes overseas visitors. (b) In order to measure the unexplainable change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas migration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count. The expected 2016 count is then compared to the actual 2016 Census count. Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0).

Source(s): Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016



Tasmania

Tasmania had the second highest rate of unexplainable change (6.9%) of the jurisdictions. The pattern of unexplainable change in Tasmania is in line with the national trend, with unexplainable increases in adults aged 30 years and over and children aged 5-14 years. This suggests that a changing propensity to identify may be impacting population change in Tasmania.

Graph Image for 3.13 Age cohort unexplainable change, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, Tasmania, 2011-2016(a)(b)

Footnote(s): (a) Usual residence Census counts. Excludes overseas visitors. (b) In order to measure the unexplainable change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas migration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count. The expected 2016 count is then compared to the actual 2016 Census count. Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0).

Source(s): Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016


Northern Territory

The Northern Territory recorded a small negative unexplainable change (a decrease of 4.0%). The impact of migration on the NT is notable, with the state losing a net 961 Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people between 2011 and 2016. Net migration loses were highest amongst persons aged 5-19 years.


Graph Image for 3.14 Age cohort unexplainable change, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, Northern Territory, 2011-2016(a)(b)

Footnote(s): (a) Usual residence Census counts. Excludes overseas visitors. (b) In order to measure the unexplainable change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas migration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count. The expected 2016 count is then compared to the actual 2016 Census count. Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0).

Source(s): Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016


Australian Capital Territory

The ACT had a rate of unexplainable change of 3.4%. Considering its relatively small population, the impact of migration on the ACT is notable, with net migration (including overseas migration) adding 327 people to the ACT’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Net migration was highest amongst persons aged 15-24 years.


Graph Image for 3.15 Age cohort unexplainable change, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, ACT, 2011-2016(a)(b)

Footnote(s): (a) Usual residence Census counts. Excludes overseas visitors. (b) In order to measure the unexplainable change in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, the net effects of births, deaths and overseas migration are added (or subtracted) to the 2011 Census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to produce an expected 2016 count. The expected 2016 count is then compared to the actual 2016 Census count. Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0).

Source(s): Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016



UNEXPLAINABLE CHANGE BY INDIGENOUS REGIONS


The IREGs with the highest rate of unexplainable change were NSW Central and North Coast (12.3%) followed by Sydney-Wollongong (10.4%) and West Kimberley (10.2%).

Where natural increase was higher than the overall increase in Census counts between 2011 and 2016, it resulted in a negative unexplainable change. This negative unexplained change was greatest in Kununurra (-21.3), Geraldton (-14.3) and Port Lincoln-Ceduna (-14.1).


3.16 Unexplainable change by Indigenous Regions, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, 2011-2016(a)(b)(c)


Map: Unexplainable change in counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders in Indigenous Regions between 2011 and 2016





(a) Usual Residence Census Counts. Excludes overseas visitors.
(b) Unexplainable change is the difference between two Census counts that cannot be explained by demographic factors of population change. Negative unexplainable change occurs when the explainable components of the increase are larger than the total intercensal difference.
(c) Proportions calculated as a proportion of the 2016 Census counts.
Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2016 (cat. no. 2901.0)
See Datacube Explainable and Unexplainable change, Table 2.3
Source: Australian Census of Population and Housing, 2011-2016; ABS Registered Births; ABS Registered Deaths.