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INTRODUCTION

The estimates and projections of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians presented in this release are subject to volatility. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Census counts and the quality of data on births, deaths and migration of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people do not support the use of the standard approach to population estimation.


Population estimates

Estimates for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia and the states and territories have been produced for the period 2001 to 2011. Estimates for 30 June 1996 to 30 June 2000 are also included in Appendix 1, however these estimates should be used with caution and have not been included in any analysis for this release.


Population projections

Using assumptions about future fertility, paternity, life expectancy at birth and migration, 10 series of projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population have been generated for 2012 to 2026 (see Chapter 2 for more information). Three series, Series A, B and C, have been chosen for analysis in this release. Detailed information for these and the remaining series are available in data cubes attached to this release on the ABS web site.

It is important to recognise that the projections are not predictions or forecasts, but are illustrations of the growth and change in population which would occur if certain assumptions about future levels of fertility, paternity, mortality and migration were to prevail over the projection period. There can be no certainty that any particular outcome will be realised, or that future outcomes will necessarily fall within the projected ranges.

1.1 MAIN PROJECTION SERIES, Australia
					30 June 2026
	Total fertility rate	Total paternity rate(a)	Male life expectancy at birth	Females life expectancy at birth	Males	Females	Persons
	babies per woman	babies per man	years	years	no.	no.	no.
Series A(b)	2.25	1.25	76.5	80.4	477 124	468 470	945 594
Series B(c)	2.09	1.08	73.5	77.4	466 707	458 246	924 953
Series C(d)	1.95	0.94	72.0	75.9	457 991	449 798	907 789
(a) Births to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men, where the mother's Indigenous status was non-Indigenous or not stated, per Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander man.
(b) Series A assumes Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates remain constant; paternity rates increase by 2% per year; and life expectancy at birth increases by 0.5 years per year for males and 0.45 years per year for females, reaching 76.5 years for males and 80.4 years for females by 2026.
(c) Series B assumes Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates decline by 0.5% per year; paternity rates increase by 1% per year; and life expectancy at birth increases by 0.3 years per year for males and 0.25 years per year for females, reaching 73.5 years for males and 77.4 years for females by 2026.
(d) Series C assumes Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility rates decline by 1% per year; paternity rates remain constant; and life expectancy at birth increases by 0.2 years per year for males and 0.15 years per year for females, reaching 72.0 years for males and 75.9 years for females by 2026.