2. FARM BUSINESS CHARACTERISTICS

STATE

As climate across Australia's different geographic zones can vary markedly, especially the incidence of extreme weather phenomena, location has an influence on how land managers perceive whether climate affecting their holding has changed.

On a state basis, survey results showed that 74% of Victoria's land managers considered the climate affecting their holding had changed, the highest rate in the country.

Analysis of the location variable supports this observation and shows that, compared to Victoria (as the base category), land managers in all states except Tasmania were less likely to perceive the climate affecting their holding had changed (NT 79%, WA 48%, QLD 46%, NSW 36%, SA 26%). An alternate interpretation is that Victorian land managers are: 1.36 times more likely than South Australian land managers; 1.55 times more likely than New South Wales land managers; 1.87 times more likely than Queensland land managers; 1.93 times more likely than Western Australian land managers; and more than 4.7 times more likely than Northern Territory land managers to perceive that the climate on their holding had changed.

The odds ratios for managers in Tasmania are no more or less likely to perceive the climate affecting this holding had changed than managers in Victoria.

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Explanatory variable	Category	Base category	Odds ratio	95% Confidence limits
State	NSW (including ACT)	Victoria	0.644	0.580, 0.716
	QLD		0.535	0.478, 0.600
	SA		0.738	0.648, 0.840
	WA		0.516	0.451, 0.589
	TAS		0.836#	0.697, 1.003
	NT		0.214	0.164, 0.278

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# not significant

SIZE OF HOLDING BY AREA

There does not appear to be a consistent pattern between the size of the holding and the land mangers perception that climate affecting their holding has changed. Nevertheless, there are some interesting results.

The analysis found that land managers of properties with an area of holding in the range 500 hectares to 1,000 hectares were 21% more likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than the land managers of very small holdings (base category of < 50 hectares). Smaller holdings (50 hectares to 500 hectares) and mid-range holdings (1,000 hectares to 5,000 hectares and 5,000 hectares to 10,000 hectares) were no more or less likely to perceive the climate affecting their holding had changed than those on very small holdings (base category of < 50 hectares).

However, land managers of properties with an area of holding in the range 10,000 hectares to 50,000 hectares and greater than 50,000 hectares were less likely to perceive the climate affecting their holding had changed (30% and 20% respectively).

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Explanatory variable	Category	Base category	Odds ratio	95% Confidence limits
Area of Holding(*Question 5)	50 to 500 ha	less than 50 ha	1.070#	0.963, 1.188
	500 to 1 000 ha		1.214	1.040, 1.418
	1 000 to 5 000 ha		1.072#	0.926, 1.240
	5 000 to 10 000 ha		0.922#	0.749, 1.134
	10 000 to 50 000 ha		0.695	0.574, 0.842
	>50 000 ha		0.795	0.633, 0.999

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* Relates to the Question number on the 2006-07 NRM survey form shown at Appendix 1
# not significant

ESTIMATED VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS (EVAO) OF HOLDING

Does the financial situation of a farm business influence the farm managers perception that the climate affecting the holding has changed? For this analysis, the Estimated Value of Agricultural Operations (a proxy for turnover) was used as a financial indicator of farm size, with units being grouped into eight 'farm size' categories.

Results from the analysis showed that land managers of businesses with EVAO in the smaller ranges i.e. less than or equal to $49,999, $50,000 to $99,999, $100,000 to $149,999, $150,000 to $199,999 and $200,000 to $349,999 are around 40% more likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than those on farms with EVAO greater than $2,000,000.

Managers of businesses with EVAO in the ranges $350,000 to $499,999, $500,000 to $999,999 and $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 are no more or less likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than land managers on farms with EVAO greater than $2,000,000 (base category).

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Explanatory variable	Category	Base category	Odds ratio	95% Confidence limits
Farm size (according to	<= $49 999	>= $2 000 000	1.375	1.163, 1.627
the standard range	$50 000 to $99 999		1.422	1.193, 1.694
of EVAO)	$100 000 to $149 999		1.501	1.250, 1.803
	$150 000 to $199 999		1.404	1.153, 1.708
	$200 000 to $349 999		1.305	1.104, 1.542
	$350 000 to $499 999		1.155#	0.961, 1.387
	$500 000 to $999 999		1.052#	0.893, 1.238
	$1 000 000 to $1 999 999		1.039#	0.871, 1.239

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# not significant

INDUSTRY

Analysis of the responses on an industry basis did not show a clear pattern. Farm businesses classified to the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industry Classification (ANZSIC) ‘Other Crop Growing’, which includes 'Sugarcane Growing', 'Cotton Growing' and crop growing other than grain growing, were 32% less likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than businesses classified to the ‘Sheep, Beef Cattle and Grain Farming’ industry (base category).

‘Poultry farming’ businesses were also less likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than businesses classified to ‘Sheep, Beef Cattle and Grain Farming’ (base category).

Farm businesses classified to ‘Other Livestock Farming’ e.g. horse farming, pig farming, and bee keeping, were more likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than farm businesses who operated in the industry ‘Sheep, Beef and Grain Farming’ (base category).

For all other industry classifications, farm businesses were no more or less likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than the base category.

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Explanatory variable	Category	Base category	Odds ratio	95% Confidence limits
Industry (Groups)	Nursery and Floriculture Production (011)	Sheep, Beef Cattle and Grain Farming (014)	1.021#	0.810, 1.285
	Mushroom and Vegetable Growing (012)		0.903#	0.761, 1.073
	Fruit and Tree Nut Growing (013)		1.128#	0.985, 1.293
	Other Crop Growing (015)		0.679	0.579, 0.797
	Dairy Cattle Farming (016)		1.094#	0.910, 1.316
	Poultry Farming (017)		0.655	0.503, 0.852
	Deer Farming (018)		1.442#	0.622, 3.346
	Other Livestock Farming (019)		1.213	1.013, 1.453
	Industries other than Agriculture i.e. agricultural production is secondary		0.948#	0.839, 1.070

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# not significant