3238.0 - Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2006 to 2031  
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/07/2019   
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BACKCAST ESTIMATES FOR THE PERIOD 2001 to 2005


Quality of backcast estimates for 2001 to 2005

ABS advises that the 2001 to 2005 estimates included in the spreadsheet attached to this release should be used with caution.

Reliable life expectancy estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population are not available for the period 2001 to 2005. Therefore, mortality assumptions for these years were based on trends in life expectancy during 2005-2007 and 2015-2017. There will be a greater alignment between this assumption-based mortality and the actual mortality for the years closer to the base year than those for the out years.

Moreover, estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population at 30 June 2016 (based on the 2016 Census) are 19% larger than those at 30 June 2011 (based on the 2011 Census). As a consequence, the use of this 2016 ERP base introduces uncertainty to the historical estimates. The uncertainty increases as the time from the base year increases.

Table 1: ESTIMATES OF ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER AUSTRALIANS(a), States/territories - At 30 June

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

NSW
180 570
186 018
191 390
196 790
202 137
Vic.
43 290
44 306
45 276
46 237
47 124
Qld
154 166
158 286
162 454
166 573
170 858
SA
30 967
31 713
32 420
33 148
33 879
WA
74 060
75 881
77 659
79 353
81 123
Tas.
20 271
20 784
21 261
21 781
22 301
NT
56 141
57 270
58 398
59 476
60 565
ACT
5 560
5 697
5 838
5 980
6 123
Aust.(b)
565 242
580 178
594 922
609 566
624 341

(a) Estimates based on the 2016 Census.
(b) Includes Other Territories.