3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2016 to 2041 Quality Declaration 
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The size and age/sex structure of Australia's future population will influence the number of future households, families and people in different living arrangements.

Previous sections of this publication apply three different assumptions about living arrangements to the series B projection from Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) to 2066 (cat. no. 3222.0). This chapter looks at the impact of instead using the series A (higher) or series C (lower) population projections as the future population of Australia.


Population projections, assumptions (a)

Assumptions
Projected population
Life expectancy at birth (b)
Total fertility rate (c)
Males
Females
Net overseas migration (c)
2041
Average annual growth rate
Population series
babies per woman
years
years
persons
million
%

Series A
1.95
87.7
89.2
275 000
36.1
1.6
Series B
1.80
83.0
86.0
225 000
34.0
1.4
Series C
1.65
83.0
86.0
175 000
32.1
1.1

(a) For details on the specific assumptions see Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) – 2066 (cat. no. 3222.0).
(b) From 2066.
(c) From 2027.

Household projections

Using the series B projection as the future population of Australia results in a projection of between 12.6 and 13.2 million households in Australia in 2041. This is an increase of between 3.4 and 4.0 million households.

If instead the series A projection was used as the future population, the number of households is projected to be 4% higher than using series B, increasing by between 3.9 and 4.6 million households to reach between 13.1 and 13.8 million households in 2041.

If the series C projection were used, the number is projected to be 3% lower than using series B, increasing by between 3.0 and 3.6 million households to reach between 12.2 and 12.8 million households.

Graph Image for Projected households, Australia

Footnote(s): (a) Uses series I household projection assumptions and series A population projection assumptions. (b) Uses series II household projection assumptions and series B population projection assumptions. (c) Uses series III household projection assumptions and series C population projection assumptions.

Source(s): Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2016 to 2041




The use of different population projection series (A, B or C) has relatively little impact on the proportion of households in each household type. For example, family households are projected to make up 70% of all households for series II regardless of which population is used. The impact of the population projection series is mainly on the number of each type of household, rather than on the proportion relative to the population.

Projected households, selected projection series combination

Series A (a)
Series B (a)
Series C (a)
'000
'000
'000

ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS – 2016

Households
Family
6 480.3
6 480.3
6 480.3
Group
423.9
423.9
423.9
Lone-person
2 300.4
2 300.4
2 300.4
Total
9 204.6
9 204.6
9 204.6

PROJECTED HOUSEHOLDS – 2041

Series I (b)
Family
9 545.7
9 163.4
8 848.9
Group
577.0
547.2
518.9
Lone-person
3 671.5
3 523.8
3 447.8
Total
13 794.2
13 234.4
12 815.6
Series II (b)
Family
9 450.6
9 073.6
8 768.6
Group
620.6
589.0
559.1
Lone-person
3 494.4
3 356.0
3 285.9
Total
13 565.6
13 018.7
12 613.6
Series III (b)
Family
9 270.9
8 903.7
8 615.6
Group
695.5
661.0
628.3
Lone-person
3 167.8
3 045.7
2 985.4
Total
13 134.2
12 610.3
12 229.4

(a) Series A, B and C refer to three series of population projections from Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) – 2066 (cat. no. 3222.0).
(b) Series I, II and III refer to assumptions made about future living arrangements of the population of Australia. See the page 'Assumptions' for more detail.


Family projections

Using the series B projection as the future population, the number of families in Australia is projected to reach between 9.2 and 9.4 million in 2041.

If the series A population is used instead of series B, higher numbers of families are projected (between 9.5 and 9.8 million in 2041), while if series C is used, fewer families are projected (between 8.9 and 9.1 million).

Graph Image for Projected families, Australia

Footnote(s): (a) Uses series I household projection assumptions and series A population projection assumptions. (b) Uses series II household projection assumptions and series B population projection assumptions. (c) Uses series III household projection assumptions and series C population projection assumptions.

Source(s): Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2016 to 2041



As with household projections, the use of different population projection series (A, B or C) has relatively little impact on the proportion of families in each family type. For example, couple families with children is projected to make up 43% of all families for series II regardless of which population is used. The impact of the population projection series is mainly on the number of each type of family, rather than on the proportion relative to the population.


Projected number of families, selected projection series combination

Series A (a)
Series B (a)
Series C (a)
'000
'000
'000

ESTIMATED FAMILIES – 2016

Families
Couples families with children
2 956.7
2 956.7
2 956.7
Couple families without children
2 512.7
2 512.7
2 512.7
One-parent families
Male parent
193.9
193.9
193.9
Female parent
878.2
878.2
878.2
Other families
117.6
117.6
117.6
Total
6 659.0
6 659.0
6 659.0

PROJECTED FAMILIES – 2041

Series I (b)
Couples families with children
4 271.6
4 086.9
3 912.1
Couple families without children
3 769.9
3 636.9
3 548.5
One-parent families
Male parent
289.7
279.1
271.5
Female parent
1 313.3
1 257.3
1 212.6
Other families
170.7
161.9
154.2
Total
9 815.0
9 422.1
9 098.9
Series II (b)
Couples families with children
4 225.2
4 046.5
3 878.1
Couple families without children
3 705.2
3 569.0
3 480.6
One-parent families
Male parent
304.7
294.0
286.6
Female parent
1 322.0
1 268.3
1 226.4
Other families
160.0
152.0
144.7
Total
9 717.1
9 329.8
9 016.3
Series III (b)
Couples families with children
4 079.5
3 912.9
3 757.3
Couple families without children
3 614.3
3 472.3
3 384.1
One-parent families
Male parent
331.9
320.9
313.7
Female parent
1 363.9
1 313.0
1 274.5
Other families
142.8
135.9
129.5
Total
9 532.3
9 155.0
8 859.0

(a) Series A, B and C refer to three series of population projections from Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) – 2066 (cat. no. 3222.0).
(b) Series I, II and III refer to assumptions made about future living arrangements of the population of Australia. See Chapter 2 – Assumptions for more detail.



Living arrangement projections

The different age structures of series A, B and C result in differences in the proportion of the projected population in each type of living arrangement.



Projected living arrangement proportions, selected population projection series (series II)

2016
2041
Series A
Series B
Series C
%
%
%
%

Partner in couple family with children
24.4
23.4
23.8
24.2
Child in a couple family
24.0
24.1
23.0
21.6
Partner in couple family without children
20.8
20.5
21.0
21.7
Lone parent
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
Child in lone-parent family
7.0
7.2
7.0
6.7
Group household member
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.1
Lone person
9.5
9.7
9.9
10.2
Usual resident of a non-private dwelling
2.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
Other
3.8
4.1
4.2
4.2