The Demography Section of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has commenced work on the 2002-2101 population projections for Australia, the states and territories, and for each capital city and balance of state/territory. It is proposed that the projections for Australia go out to the year 2101 while the state/territory and the capital city/balance of state/territory projections go out to 2051. The Population Projections, Australia (cat. no. 3222.0) publication is scheduled for release in July/August 2003.
The ABS uses the cohort-component method for these projections, which requires various assumptions to be made on future levels of fertility, mortality, overseas migration and interstate migration. This method begins with a base population for each sex by single years of age and advances it year by year by applying these assumptions.
The process of developing the population projection assumptions involves consultation with various individuals and government departments with an interest in population issues, at both the national and state/territory level, to ensure their general relevance to users of projections. Any further comments are on the proposed assumptions are welcome and should be sent by email to Katrina Phelan (firstname.lastname@example.org) by 4 April 2003.