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APPENDIX 3 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES
The seasonally adjusted series in the third graph shows a large increase in short-term visitor arrivals from the United Kingdom in June 2013. This was caused by the British and Irish Lions Rugby Union tour of Australia.
CHINA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
FRANCE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
UNITED KINGDOM(a) Short-term Visitor Arrivals
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
Sometimes there are abrupt and sustained changes in the underlying behaviour of short-term movement series, termed ‘trend breaks’. Given that these occasions can distort trend estimates, the ABS takes such breaks into account when smoothing seasonally adjusted series.
Analysis of short-term resident departures to Egypt shows the introduction of a break to the series in February 2011. This is necessitated by the sustained decrease in travel there due to ongoing political instability in the region. A trend break has been applied to the graph of resident departures to Indonesia at December 2006 due to movements returning to levels closer to those recorded prior to the October 2005 Bali bombings. A second trend break for Indonesia was applied at April 2009 due to an associated increase in movements that coincided with the introduction of initiatives to combat the Global Financial Crisis. Such initiatives included the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and February 2009 and cut-price air fares and travel packages. Additionally, travel from Australia has continued to benefit from the high Australian dollar. These impacts were not apparent when analysing departures to some countries, including Egypt. Consequently a trend break correction was not necessary for this series. For further information for breaks in trend series see Explanatory Notes Paragraph 26.
A major decrease in the number of short-term resident departures to Vanuatu is shown for the period of December 2014 to July 2015, this was caused by a series of disruption of air travel to and from the island due to severe tropical cyclones, most notably, Cyclone Lusi in March 2014 and Cyclone Pam in March 2015.
EGYPT, Short-term Resident Departures(a)
INDONESIA, Short-term Resident Departures(a)
VANUATU Short-term Resident Departures
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