9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Mar 2015 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 16/04/2015   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimates based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 12 and 13.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The April 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the March 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

2 The April 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the March 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

The percentage change of 2.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 2.2%.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 2.2%
(2) Falls by 2.2%
no.
no.
no.

2014
December
93 371
93 325
93 395
2015
January
93 850
93 953
93 766
February
94 351
94 668
94 049
March
94 735
95 379
94 213