9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Mar 2014 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 17/04/2014   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimates based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 12 and 13.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The April 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the March 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

2 The April 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the March 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

The percentage change of 2.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 2.2%.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 2.2%
(2) Falls by 2.2%
no.
no.
no.

2013
December
94 058
94 030
94 098
2014
January
93 666
93 723
93 541
February
93 163
93 379
92 778
March
92 699
93 112
91 980