8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Nov 2004

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/01/2005

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About this Release

NOVEMBER KEY FIGURES

		Nov 04	Oct 04 to Nov 04
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	16,549.8	-0.1
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	16,513.1	0.1

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimates, Percentage change

NOVEMBER KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series decreased by 0.1% in November 2004. This follows no growth for October and September 2004.
In November 2004, the trend estimate increased in Victoria (+0.1%) and Western Australia (+0.2%). All other states and territories had decreases with the largest in Queensland (-0.3%).
Over the three months to November 2004, the Australian trend estimate decreased by $8m. Household good retailing (+$51m) and Other retailing (+$2m) had the only increases.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.1% in November 2004. This followed a revised decrease of 1.0% in October 2004.
Queensland (+0.3%), South Australia (+0.3%) and Western Australia (+0.8%) recorded seasonally adjusted growth in November 2004. New South Wales and Northern Territory had no growth while Victoria, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory decreased marginally.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 1.2% in November 2004 compared with October 2004. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 2.5%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) decreased by 0.6%.
Australian turnover increased by 2.0% in November 2004 compared with November 2003. Chains and other large retailers increased by 4.7%, while 'smaller' retailers fell by 1.4%.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for November 2004 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	16,999.1	119.0
Change from preceding month ($m)	196.1	43.9
% change from preceding month (%)	1.2	0.3

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Jeremy Walker on Canberra (02) 6252 5451.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

In the last five months, the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services trend series has gone from weak growth to being in decline in November 2004. Household good retailing continued its moderate trend growth in November 2004 while all other industries were in decline.

FOOD RETAILING

November 2004 was in decline after being flat in October and September. South Australia and Tasmania continued their moderate trend growth. In the last four months, the Australian Capital Territory and Victoria had weak growth while the other states and Northern Territory were in decline.

DEPARTMENT STORES

After strong trend growth from March to July 2004, growth slowed and has been in decline over the last three months. All published states and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline in November 2004.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

The trend was in decline in the three months to November 2004 after a steady fall in growth rates since May 2004. Over the last five months Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had strong growth. Over the last three months all the other states and the Northern Territory were in decline.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

Trend growth has remained moderate to strong over the past five months after a period of weak growth from February 2004 to June 2004. Over the last five months, New South Wales and Victoria has been showing strong growth and Northern Territory has been in decline.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

The trend has been in decline for the last five months. Western Australia was the only state with strong growth in this period with all other states and territories flat or in decline for at least the last three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

Trend growth has been slowing over the past five months with November 2004 being in decline. Queensland and Western Australia have had long periods of strong growth while South Australia had moderate growth over the last five months. New South Wales, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory have been flat or in decline over quite a long period.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) was in decline in November 2004. Over the last six months, the rate of trend growth has generally been slightly stronger than that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

The trend has been in decline for the last six months. New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania have been in decline for the last five months or longer. By contrast, Northern Territory has had strong trend growth over a similar period, while Victoria has had moderate growth for the last four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend has been in decline for the last four months. Over this period, Household good retailing was the only industry to show growth. Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have been in decline for 13 months.

VICTORIA

Trend growth has been weak for the last nine months. After periods of strong growth, the rates of growth in Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have decreased significantly to being in decline in the last three months. Food retailing has been weak or flat over this period and Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services has been in decline. Household good retailing has had strong growth over the last five months and Hospitality and services has had moderate growth.

QUEENSLAND

Trend growth was flat for September 2004 and in decline for October and November. This reflects weak seasonally adjusted growth in November 2004 preceded by a large decline in October. Over the last three months Other retailing (strong), Household good retailing (moderate) and Department stores (weak) have had trend growth while all other industries were in decline.

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

In November 2004, the trend was in decline after three months of being flat. Over the last three months Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have been in decline while Household good retailing and Other retailing have had moderate growth. Food retailing has had weak growth over this period.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The rate of trend growth has been decreasing over the past six months with weak growth in the last three months. Strong growth in recent months in Clothing and soft good, Recreational good and Other retailing has been offset by a decline in Food retailing, Department stores and Hospitality and services. Household good retailing had weak trend growth in October and November 2004 after a period of strong growth.

TASMANIA

The trend was in decline in October and November 2004 and flat in September. Food retailing has had 12 months of moderate trend growth. Over the last three months Household good retailing has had weak growth and the other published industries are in decline.