5609.0 - Housing Finance for Owner Occupation, Australia, Sep 2003
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 10/11/2003
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FEATURE ARTICLE - INTRODUCTION OF CONCURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
In the August issue we indicated that we were investigating some reporting quality issues. These investigations have resulted in significant revisions to the number and value of total housing finance commitments for August. The revisions were mainly made to established dwelling finance and have increased total number of housing finance commitments (seasonally adjusted) for August from 58,741 to 59,815.
The value of commitments for the construction or purchase of dwellings for rent or resale is published in the monthly Lending Finance, Australia (cat. no. 5671.0).
From the next issue of this publication, the concurrent adjustment method of seasonal adjustment will replace the forward factor approach used up until now. The main difference between the two methods is that the concurrent adjustment method uses the most recently available data every month to re-estimate seasonal factors whereas the forward factor approach uses the most recently available data only once a year to produce forward estimates of the seasonal factors. Experience with a wide range of ABS collections indicates that concurrent adjustment generally produces more accurate initial seasonally adjusted estimates. However, it can result in revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates for previous months.
A note showing the impacts of the change in methodology on the series in this publication is available on this website by clicking on AusStats.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
Number financed including refinancing
The seasonally adjusted housing finance series continued its recent growth, increasing by 4.0% (up 2403) in September 2003 following a 4.0% increase in August 2003. For the second successive month, the increase was mainly due to strengths in the refinancing of established dwellings (up 1234, 7.1%) and purchase of established dwellings excluding refinancing (up 1138, 3.2%). There were small movements in finance for the construction of dwellings (up 56, or 1.0%) and the purchase of new dwellings (down 25, -1.5%). The total housing commitments trend increased in September (up 1202, 2.0%).
Increases were recorded in seasonally adjusted terms for all states and territories. New South Wales (up 633, 3.3%) and Western Australia (up 361, 4.9%) had the largest absolute increases while Tasmania and Northern Territory recorded the highest proportional rises with increases of 12.3% and 10.9% respectively. The trend series increased in September 2003 for all states and territories, except for the Northern Territory.
In original terms, the average loan size continued to grow strongly, increasing by $3500 to $189100 in September 2003. The percentage of first home buyers continued its pattern of general decline since a record high of 25.8% in July 2001, declining marginally to a record low of 13.3% in September 2003. The percentage of commitments at a fixed rate of interest (for at least two years) increased for the third successive month from 9.0% in August 2003 to 9.7% in September 2003.
Number financed excluding refinancing
The number of dwellings financed excluding refinancing (seasonally adjusted) increased in September 2003 (up 1169, 2.8%), after a 3.2% rise in August. The trend series increased by 1.4% in September.
Value of commitments
The total value of commitments (seasonally adjusted) increased by 3.9% in September 2003, after a rise of 5.3% in August. The trend series continued its run of increases since March 2002, rising by 3.1% in September 2003.
PURPOSE OF FINANCE
Construction of dwellings
Construction commitments (seasonally adjusted) rose by 1.0% in September 2003. The trend series remained flat in September, following increases in each of the previous months in 2003.
Purchase of new dwellings
The number of finance commitments for the purchase of new dwellings (seasonally adjusted) fell by 1.5% in September 2003, after a decrease of 1.9% in August. The trend series rose 1.0% in September, following a run of larger increases since October 2002.
Purchase of established dwellings
Finance commitments for the purchase of established dwellings in September rose 4.5% (seasonally adjusted) and 2.3% (trend). The seasonally adjusted increase was due to similar increases in refinancing (up 1234) and other financing commitments for established dwellings (up 1138).
Refinancing commitments grew strongly in September 2003, increasing by 7.1% in seasonally adjusted terms. As a result, trend growth remained strong, at 3.5%.
TYPE OF LENDER
Bank finance (seasonally adjusted) increased by 1.8% in September 2003, after a revised increase of 5.7% in August. Growth in the trend series eased slightly to 2.2%.
Non-bank commitments (seasonally adjusted) rose sharply by 10.7% in September 2003, after a decrease of 1.2% in August. Permanent building societies were up 163, 7.1%, and wholesale lenders were up 541, 5.9%. The non-bank trend series continued to increase, but at the slower rate of 1.6% for September.
For further information about these and related statistics, contact Darren Page on Canberra 02 6252 6731, or the ABS National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070.
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