2051.0 - Australian Census Analytic Program: Forecasting Births, 2006  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 21/07/2011  First Issue
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All

This paper describes a new methodology for the estimation of the future number of births by increasing the number of demographic parameters incorporated in the estimation model. Using data from Australian Censuses of Population and Housing (1981 to 2006), the authors demonstrate the increased accuracy gained in the short-term projection of births through the inclusion of parameters such as the timing of first birth, parity, and duration since previous birth to the conventional model which uses mother's age only. This analysis was undertaken as part of the 2001 and 2006 Australian Census Analytic Program (ACAP).