9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Jul 2011 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 15/08/2011   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimates based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 12 and 13.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The August 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the July 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

2 The August 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the July 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

The percentage change of 2.1% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 2.1%. The percentage change has been reviewed and updated following the recent re-analysis of the time series.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 2.1%
(2) Falls by 2.1%
no.
no.
no.

2011
April
81 607
81 501
81 561
May
80 902
81 185
81 025
June
80 485
81 401
80 874
July
80 340
82 056
81 062