9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Dec 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 22/01/2008   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.


1 The January 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the December 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.2%.


2 The January 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the December 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.2%.


The percentage change of 3.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.2%.


Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 3.2%
(2) Falls by 3.2%
no.
no.
no.

2007
September
88 303
88 240
88 339
October
89 098
89 255
88 993
November
89 901
90 408
89 542
December
90 579
91 574
89 941