MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE


CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis is in original terms.

HOUSING GROUP (+0.8%)

The main contributors to the rise in the housing group this quarter are new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.0%), electricity (+2.5%) and gas and other household fuels (+3.8%). The rise in new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers is driven by rises in input costs. The rise in electricity and gas and other household fuels is driven by increases in wholesale costs.

Over the last twelve months, the housing group rose 2.5%. The main contributors to the rise are new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+2.8%) and electricity (+7.5%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group rose 0.8% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.0%).


TRANSPORT GROUP (+1.5%)

The main contributor to the rise in the transport group this quarter is automotive fuel (+5.7%). Automotive fuel rose in January (+4.6%) and fell in February (-2.4%) and March (-1.4%). All fuel types recorded rises this quarter. The rise is partially offset by falls in urban transport fares (-0.8%) and motor vehicles (-0.3%).

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

Over the last twelve months, the transport group rose 3.8%. The main contributor to the rise is automotive fuel (+16.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group rose 1.3% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is automotive fuel (+5.7%).


HEALTH GROUP (+2.0%)

The main contributors to the rise in the health group this quarter are medical and hospital services (+1.6%) and pharmaceutical products (+4.9%). These rises are a result of the cyclical reduction in the proportion of patients who qualify for subsidies under the Medicare Benefits Scheme (MBS) and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), as well as the co-payment indexation for PBS. The safety net threshold amount for both the MBS and PBS are reset on 1 January each year, and the co-payment indexation for PBS is scheduled on the same date.

Over the last twelve months, the health group rose 3.8%. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+5.4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 0.7% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+1.2%).


EDUCATION GROUP (+3.1%)

The main contributors to the rise in the education group this quarter are secondary education (+4.1%) and tertiary education (+2.4%) following the commencement of the new school year.

Over the last twelve months, the education group rose 3.3%. The main contributor to the rise is secondary education (+4.1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group fell 0.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is tertiary education (-1.0%).


ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+1.1%)

The main contributor to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group this quarter is tobacco (+1.0%).The rise in tobacco is due to the federal excise tax increase effective from 1 March 2017 based on the Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings (AWOTE).

Over the last twelve months, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 6.1%. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+13.3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.9% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+3.0%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (-1.0%)

The main contributor to the fall in the furnishings, household equipment and services group this quarter is furniture (-3.5%) due to post Christmas specials.

Over the last twelve months, the furnishings, household equipment and services group fell 0.1%. The main contributor to the fall is household textiles (-5.5%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group recorded no movement.


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (-0.7%)

The main contributor to the fall in the recreation and culture group this quarter is international holiday travel and accommodation (-3.8%) due to the winter off-peak seasons in Europe and America.

Over the last twelve months, the recreation and culture group fell 0.2%. The main contributors to the fall are international holiday travel and accommodation (-4.2%) and audio, visual and computing equipment (-7.2%).

In the CPI, airfares are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the trip is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (January for travel in March) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (February for travel in March).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group rose 0.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+0.8%).


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (-1.4%)

The main contributors to the fall in the clothing and footwear group this quarter are garments for men (-3.9%), garments for infants and children (-3.8%) and garments for women (-1.7%) due to post Christmas specials.

Over the last twelve months, the clothing and footwear group rose 0.3%. The main contributor to the rise is accessories (+4.4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group rose 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is accessories (+2.8%).


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+0.6%)

The main contributor to the rise in the insurance and financial services group this quarter is insurance (+0.8%).

Over the last twelve months, the insurance and financial services group rose 2.7%. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+6.8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.7% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+0.9%).


FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (-0.2%)

The main contributors to the fall in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group this quarter are fruit (-6.7%), which saw increased supply of summer fruits, and other food products n.e.c. (-4.3%).

Over the last twelve months, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 1.8%. The main contributors to the rise are vegetables (+13.1%) and fruit (+12.2%). Adverse weather conditions in major growing areas over previous periods continue to impact supply for particular vegetables and fruits.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is fruit (+1.7%).


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-0.3%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group this quarter is telecommunication equipment and services (-0.5%).

Over the last twelve months, the communication group fell 4.8%. The main contributor to the fall is telecommunication equipment and services (-5.2%).

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradables component (see Table 8) of the All groups CPI fell 0.2% this quarter. Price changes for the goods and services in this component are largely determined on the world market. The tradables component represents approximately 35% of the weight of the CPI. The tradable goods component recorded no movement this quarter. The most significant negative contributor is fruit (-6.7%), while the most significant positive contributor is automotive fuel (+5.7%). The fall in the tradable services component of 3.6% is driven by international holiday travel and accommodation (-3.8%).

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.9% this quarter. Price changes for the goods and services in this component are largely determined by domestic price pressures. The non-tradables component represents approximately 65% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributors to the 1.1% rise in the non-tradable goods component are new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.0%) and electricity (+2.5%). The rise in the non-tradable services component of 0.6% is driven by medical and hospital services (+1.6%), secondary education (+4.1%) and tertiary education (+2.4%).

Over the last twelve months, the tradables component rose 1.3%, while the non-tradables component rose 2.6%. This compares to a rise of 0.1% and 2.1% respectively over the twelve months to the December quarter 2016.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.5% this quarter, while the non-tradables component rose 0.7%.

A detailed description of which expenditure classes are classified as tradable and non-tradable in the 16th series is shown in the Appendix of the December quarter 2016 issue of Consumer Price Index, Australia (cat. no 6401.0).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

The All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.5% this quarter, compared to the original All groups CPI which also recorded a rise of 0.5%.

The trimmed mean rose 0.5% this quarter, compared to a revised rise of 0.5% in the December quarter 2016. Over the last twelve months, the trimmed mean rose 1.9%, compared to a rise of 1.6% over the twelve months to the December quarter 2016.

The weighted median rose 0.4% this quarter, compared to a rise of 0.4% in the December quarter 2016. Over the last twelve months, the weighted median rose 1.7%, compared to a revised rise of 1.4% over the twelve months to the December quarter 2016.

		ORIGINAL	SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
		Dec Qtr 2016 to Mar Qtr 2017	Dec Qtr 2016 to Mar Qtr 2017
		%	%
All groups CPI		0.5	0.5
Food and non-alcoholic beverages		-0.2	0.1
Alcohol and tobacco		1.1	1.9
Clothing and footwear		-1.4	0.1
Housing		0.8	0.8
Furnishings, household equipment and services		-1.0	0.0
Health		2.0	0.7
Transport		1.5	1.3
Communication(a)		-0.3	-0.3
Recreation and culture		-0.7	0.2
Education		3.1	-0.5
Insurance and financial services		0.6	0.7
International trade exposure series
	Tradables	-0.2	0.5
	Non-tradables	0.9	0.7
(a) not seasonally adjusted

A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI and calculation of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.