MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE


CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis is in original terms.

ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+3.2%)

The main contributor to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group this quarter is tobacco (+9.4%). The rise in tobacco is due to the effects of the 12.5% increase in the federal excise tax and the further increase based on Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings (AWOTE), effective from 1 September 2018.

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 6.8%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+4.4%).


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (+1.1%)

The main contributor to the rise in the recreation and culture group this quarter is domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+6.2%). The rise in domestic holiday travel and accommodation is due to the October school holidays and the lead up to the peak summer holiday period.

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the recreation and culture group rose 1.7%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group rose 0.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+0.9%).


FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (+0.9%)

The main contributors to the rise in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group this quarter are fruit (+5.0%), due to seasonal rises in lemons, apples, bananas and strawberries. Meat and seafoods (+1.6%) have been impacted by drought conditions in the eastern states, impacting supply and prices, particularly for lamb and goat (+6.8%).

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 1.5%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 0.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is lamb and goat (+6.3%).


TRANSPORT GROUP (-0.7%)

The main contributor to the fall in the transport group this quarter is automotive fuel (-2.5%) due to falls in world oil prices flowing through to petrol prices. Automotive fuel rose in October (+3.3%), and fell in November (-10.8%) and December (-5.0%).

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the transport group rose 2.8%. The main contributor to the rise is automotive fuel (+6.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group fell 0.4% in the December quarter 2018. The main contributor to the fall is automotive fuel (-2.5%).


HOUSING GROUP (+0.2%)

The main contributors to the rise in the housing group this quarter are new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.4%), electricity (+0.9%), maintenance and repair of the dwelling (+0.7%) and rents (+0.2%). The rise is partially offset by a fall in gas and other household fuels (-1.4%) due to the seasonal switch to off-peak pricing in Melbourne.

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the housing group rose 1.5%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group rose 0.4% this quarter. The main contributors to the rise are electricity (+1.3%) and new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.4%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (+0.5%)

The main contributors to the rise in the furnishings, household equipment and services group this quarter are furniture (+1.8%) and child care (+1.4%).

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the furnishings, household equipment and services group fell 0.8%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 0.9% this quarter. The main contributors to the rise are furniture (+1.8%) and child care (+1.8%).


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-1.3%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group this quarter is telecommunication equipment and services (-1.5%).

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the communication group fell 4.3%.

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


HEALTH GROUP (-0.4%)

The main contributor to the fall in the health group this quarter is pharmaceutical products (-1.9%). The fall is due to the cyclical effect of a greater proportion of consumers who qualify for subsidies under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), reducing out-of-pocket expenses.

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the health group rose 3.3%. The main contributor to the annual rise is medical and hospital services (+4.3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 1.0% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+1.4%).


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+0.3%)

The main contributor to the rise in the insurance and financial services group this quarter is insurance (+0.6%).

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the insurance and financial services group rose 1.5%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is other financial services (+0.3%).


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (-0.2%)

The main contributor to the fall in the clothing and footwear group this quarter is footwear for women (-3.6%) and garments for women (-0.9%) due to ongoing competition and discounting activity in the retail industry.

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.7%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.2% this quarter.


EDUCATION GROUP (0.0%)

The education group recorded no change this quarter.

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the education group rose 2.7%. The main contributors to the rise are secondary education (+3.3%) and preschool and primary education (+2.1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 0.8% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is secondary education (+0.9%).


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradables component of the All groups CPI fell 0.3% in the December quarter 2018. The tradable goods component fell 0.1% due to automotive fuel (-2.5%), audio, visual and comp equipment (-3.3%) and wine (-1.9%). The tradable services component fell 0.7% due to international holiday travel and accommodation (-0.8%).

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.9% in the December quarter 2018. The non-tradable goods component rose 1.5%, due to the excise tax increase for tobacco (+9.4%). The non-tradable services component rose 0.6%, due to domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+6.2%).

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the tradables component rose 0.6% and the non-tradables component rose 2.4%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the All groups CPI fell 0.1% and the non-tradables component rose 0.8%.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

In the December quarter 2018 the All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.4%.

The trimmed mean rose 0.4% in the December quarter 2018, following a revised rise of 0.4% in the September quarter 2018. Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the trimmed mean rose 1.8%, following a revised rise of 1.8% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018.

The weighted median rose 0.4% in the December quarter 2018, following a revised rise of 0.4% in the September quarter 2018. Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the weighted median rose 1.7%, following a revised rise of 1.8% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018.

		ORIGINAL	SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
		Sep Qtr 2018 to Dec Qtr 2018	Sep Qtr 2018 to Dec Qtr 2018
		%	%
All groups CPI		0.5	0.4
Food and non-alcoholic beverages		0.9	0.5
Alcohol and tobacco		3.2	1.6
Clothing and footwear		-0.2	-0.2
Housing		0.2	0.4
Furnishings, household equipment and services		0.5	0.9
Health		-0.4	1.0
Transport		-0.7	-0.4
Communication(a)		-1.3	-1.3
Recreation and culture		1.1	0.2
Education		0.0	0.8
Insurance and financial services		0.3	0.2
International trade exposure series
	Tradables	-0.3	-0.1
	Non-tradables	0.9	0.8
(a) not seasonally adjusted

A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI and calculation of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.