6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Nov 2003  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/12/2003   
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EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES

TREND REVISIONS

Each time new seasonally adjusted estimates become available, trend estimates are revised (see paragraphs 19 and 20 of Explanatory Notes).

The examples in the tables below show two illustrative scenarios and the consequent revisions to previous trend estimates of employment and the unemployment rate.

    (1) The December seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the November estimate by:
      0.30% for employment
      1.90% for the unemployment rate
    (2) The December seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the November estimate by:
      0.30% for employment
      1.90% for the unemployment rate

The percentage changes of 0.30% and 1.90% were chosen because they represent the average absolute monthly percentage changes in employment and the unemployment rate respectively.



Graph - Employment
WHAT IF NEXT MONTH’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS:

TREND AS
(1) 9666.4 i.e.
(2) 9608.6 i.e.
2003
PUBLISHED
rises by 0.30%
falls by 0.30%

August
9 531.1
9 529.8
9 530.7
September
9 557.1
9 560.1
9 557.5
October
9 584.9
9 593.5
9 584.9
November
9 610.5
9 625.4
9 609.2

Graph - Unemployment rate
WHAT IF NEXT MONTH’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS:

TREND AS
(1) 5.7 i.e.
(2) 5.5 i.e.
2003
PUBLISHED
rises by 1.90%
falls by 1.90%

August
5.9
5.9
5.9
September
5.8
5.8
5.8
October
5.7
5.7
5.7
November
5.6
5.7
5.6