LABOUR FORCE COMMENTARY JUNE 2015


ABOUT THE ESTIMATES

In original terms the growth in employment for Western Australia between April and May 2015 was unparalleled compared to previous movements between April and May. As a result, in the May 2015 issue the ABS removed this impact from the seasonally adjusted estimates for Western Australia and subsequently, Australia. This treatment has been retained for the May 2015 estimates but no similar treatment was required for the June 2015 estimates.


NATIONAL ESTIMATES

Australia's unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points from a revised May estimate to 6.0% in June 2015 (seasonally adjusted) with:

• the number of unemployed persons increasing by 12,800 to 756,100,
• the number of employed persons increasing by 7,300 to 11,768,600, and
• the participation rate increasing less than 0.1 percentage points to 64.8%.

In trend terms the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.0% in June 2015. The number of employed persons in June 2015 increased by 15,200 to 11,767,200 and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 2,800 to 753,800 in trend terms. The trend participation rate was unchanged at 64.8% in June 2015.

The employment to population ratio, which expresses the number of employed persons as a percentage of the civilian population aged 15 years and over, was unchanged at 60.9% (seasonally adjusted) in June 2015. In trend terms, the employment to population ratio increased less than 0.1 percentage points to 60.9%.

Seasonally adjusted full-time employment increased by 24,500 persons to 8,156,200 persons while part-time employment decreased by 17,200 to 3,612,400 persons in June 2015. The increase in total employment resulted from:

• an increase in female full-time employment, up 17,500 persons
• an increase in male full-time employment, up 7,000 persons
• a decrease in male part-time employment, down 6,600 persons
• a decrease in female part-time employment, down 10,600 persons.

Seasonally adjusted aggregate monthly hours worked increased 5.1 million hours (0.3%) in June 2015 to 1,636.9 million hours.


STATE ESTIMATES

The largest absolute increase in seasonally adjusted employment was in New South Wales (up 11,300 persons). The largest absolute decreases in seasonally adjusted employment were in South Australia (down 5,700 persons) and Victoria (down 5,500 persons).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the unemployment rate for Western Australia increased 0.7 percentage points and the participation rate increased 0.6 percentage points. In both cases the series returned closer to the level they were prior to the May 2015 estimates.

Of the other states, the largest decrease in the seasonally adjusted participation rate was in Queensland (down 0.3 percentage points). South Australia (up 0.6 percentage points) had the largest increase in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and Tasmania (down 0.5 percentage points) had the largest decrease.

Seasonally adjusted estimates are not published for the territories and the ABS recommends using trend estimates to analyse the underlying behaviour of the state series.

Unemployment rate, States and Territories, May 2015 and June 2015
	Trend		Seasonally Adjusted
	May	June	May	June
	%	%	%	%
New South Wales	5.8	5.8	5.7	5.8
Victoria	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0
Queensland	6.4	6.3	6.3	6.1
South Australia	7.5	7.8	7.6	8.2
Western Australia	5.5	5.5	5.1	5.8
Tasmania	6.8	6.9	7.0	6.5
Northern Territory	4.5	4.5	np	np
Australian Capital Territory	4.2	4.1	np	np
Australia	6.0	6.0	5.9	6.0
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated

GROSS FLOWS

Gross flows (Table 17) highlight the change in labour force status of individuals between last month and this month. Gross flows are derived from the sample that is common between two consecutive months which, after taking account of sample rotation and varying non-response each month, is approximately 80% of the sample. However, the level and movement estimates produced from the gross flows will not necessarily represent 80% of the level and movement estimates in a given month from the whole sample. Despite this limitation, analysis of the gross flows data can provide an indication, in original terms, of underlying movements in the labour market.

In original terms between May and June 2015 the number of persons employed decreased by 26,200 with gross flows showing a net decrease of 49,600. The decrease shown in the gross flows comprised:

• 230,600 persons whose status changed from employed to not in the labour force,
• 81,300 persons whose status changed from employed to unemployed,
• 86,700 persons whose status changed from unemployed to employed, and
• 175,600 persons whose status changed from not in the labour force to employed.

In original terms between May and June 2015 the number of persons unemployed increased by less than 100 persons with gross flows showing a net decrease of 8,700. The decrease shown in the gross flows comprised:

• 133,100 persons whose status changed from unemployed to not in the labour force,
• 86,700 persons whose status changed from unemployed to employed,
• 81,300 persons whose status changed from employed to unemployed, and
• 129,700 persons whose status changed from not in the labour force to unemployed.

As the gross flows data are presented in original terms they are not directly comparable to the seasonally adjusted and trend data discussed elsewhere in the commentary, particularly with the current movement from May 2015 to June 2015 due to the removal of the impact of unprecedented employment growth in Western Australia in May 2015 from seasonally adjusted and trend estimates.