5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Mar 2004  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 31/05/2004   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the "what-if" chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

Graph - Inventories (chain volume measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 1.1% on this quarter
(2) falls by 1.1% on this quarter
$m
%change
$m
%change
$m
%change

2003
June
95,054
1.7
95,054
1.7
95,054
1.7
September
96,727
1.8
96,733
1.8
96,862
1.9
December
98,154
1.5
98,150
1.5
98,106
1.3
2004
March
99,424
1.3
99,465
1.3
98,846
0.8


Company gross operating profits (Current prices)
Graph - Company gross operating profits (current prices)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter
$m
%change
$m
%change
$m
%change

2003
June
22,213
0.2
22,213
0.2
22,213
0.2
September
22,861
2.9
22,830
2.8
22,941
3.3
December
23,602
3.2
23,609
3.4
23,568
2.7
2004
March
24,200
2.5
24,130
2.2
23,595
0.1