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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2013 March 25 584 -0.7 25 584 -0.7 25 584 -0.7 June 25 913 1.3 25 897 1.2 25 960 1.5 September 26 298 1.5 26 301 1.6 26 277 1.2 December 26 594 1.1 26 541 0.9 26 238 -0.1

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2013 March 14 132 -2.1 14 132 -2.1 14 132 -2.1 June 13 657 -3.4 13 642 -3.5 13 667 -3.3 September 13 108 -4.0 13 115 -3.9 13 106 -4.1 December 12 506 -4.6 12 609 -3.9 12 488 -4.7

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2013 March 39 716 -1.2 39 716 -1.2 39 716 -1.2 June 39 570 -0.4 39 539 -0.4 39 627 -0.2 September 39 404 -0.4 39 413 -0.3 39 383 -0.6 December 39 126 -0.7 39 147 -0.7 38 725 -1.7