5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Jun 2015 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 27/08/2015   
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APPENDIX SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $37,335m and the calculated standard error in this case is $609m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $37,335m.

For instance, the standard error of $609m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $36,726m to $37,944m ($37,335m ± $609m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $36,117m to $38,553m ($37,335m ± $1,218m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for June Quarter 2015 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
162
39
192
Manufacturing
56
90
110
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
56
42
65
Construction
19
329
333
Wholesale Trade
11
65
66
Retail Trade
66
35
82
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
139
160
217
Information Media and Telecommunications
-
29
29
Financial and Insurance Services
27
45
51
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
277
135
326
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
33
127
128
Other Selected Services
113
144
195
Total
389
465
609
New South Wales
97
254
280
Victoria
56
215
230
Queensland
277
286
379
South Australia
77
78
112
Western Australia
197
181
248
Tasmania
6
28
29
Northern Territory
47
12
49
Australian Capital Territory
1
20
20
Australia
389
465
609
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)



MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $32,547m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $37,335m.

In this example the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $478m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $4,788m.

For instance, the standard error of $478m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two quarter period falls within the range $4,310m to $5,266m ($4,778m ± $478m).
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $3,832m to $5,774m ($4,788m ± $956m)

The following table shows the standard errors for June Quarter 2015 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
50
88
99
Manufacturing
65
139
153
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
45
21
49
Construction
15
386
386
Wholesale Trade
14
56
59
Retail Trade
97
65
119
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
57
165
168
Information Media and Telecommunications
-
29
29
Financial and Insurance Services
34
35
40
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
198
190
268
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
32
147
151
Other Selected Services
85
164
194
Total
273
456
478
New South Wales
68
276
286
Victoria
73
300
328
Queensland
241
314
361
South Australia
48
116
129
Western Australia
77
221
243
Tasmania
6
36
37
Northern Territory
47
12
50
Australian Capital Territory
1
36
36
Australia
273
456
478
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)