5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Dec 2013 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 27/02/2014   
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APPENDIX SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $42,077m and the calculated standard error in this case is $631m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $42,077m.

For instance, the standard error of $631m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $41,446m to $42,708m (42,077m ± $631m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $40,815m to $43,339m (42,077m ± $1262m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for December Quarter 2013 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
490
66
489
Manufacturing
12
91
92
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
33
8
33
Construction
27
217
217
Wholesale Trade
17
56
60
Retail Trade
51
60
91
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
56
113
130
Information Media and Telecommunications
6
11
12
Financial and Insurance Services
15
46
49
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
202
206
291
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
12
102
104
Other Selected Services
70
94
118
Total
526
398
631
New South Wales
67
175
201
Victoria
125
125
169
Queensland
140
239
257
South Australia
95
46
112
Western Australia
256
177
288
Tasmania
-
17
17
Northern Territory
270
34
275
Australian Capital Territory
14
17
28
Australia
526
398
631
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)



MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $40,644m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $42,077m.

In this example the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $492m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $1433m.

For instance, the standard error of $492m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two quarter period falls within the range $941m to $1925m ($1433m ± $492m).
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $449m to $2417m ($1433m ± $984m)

The following table shows the standard errors for December Quarter 2013 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
83
66
112
Manufacturing
27
74
86
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
20
17
27
Construction
29
179
186
Wholesale Trade
12
91
92
Retail Trade
52
97
118
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
11
180
180
Information Media and Telecommunications
7
25
25
Financial and Insurance Services
16
64
70
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
207
164
262
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
38
94
104
Other Selected Services
100
125
166
Total
245
410
492
New South Wales
90
223
248
Victoria
60
150
169
Queensland
95
257
268
South Australia
118
56
130
Western Australia
180
130
217
Tasmania
30
21
38
Northern Territory
26
7
27
Australian Capital Territory
14
10
21
Australia
245
410
492