5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Mar 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 14/05/2007   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:


1 The April 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the March 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.5%.


2 The April 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the March 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.5%.


The percentage change of 2.5% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 2.5%.


Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: Sensitivity Analysis


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.5% on this month
(2) falls by 2.5% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

September 2006
62 310
-0.6
62 311
-0.6
62 311
-0.6
October 2006
61 967
-0.6
61 921
-0.6
61 980
-0.5
November 2006
61 860
-0.2
61 770
-0.2
61 874
-0.2
December 2006
61 990
0.2
61 947
0.3
61 998
0.2
January 2007
62 236
0.4
62 348
0.6
62 211
0.3
February 2007
62 523
0.5
62 848
0.8
62 398
0.3
March 2007
62 834
0.5
63 381
0.8
62 532
0.2