WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.
The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:
1 The May 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the April 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.5%.
2 The May 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the April 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.5%.
The percentage change of 2.5% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 2.5%.
Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments
|  |
| | | What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate: |
| Trend as published | (1) rises by 2.5% on this month | (2) falls by 2.5% on this month |
| no. | % change | no. | % change | no. | % change |
|
| October 2006 | 63 455 | -0.6 | 63 456 | -0.6 | 63 456 | -0.6 |
| November 2006 | 63 223 | -0.4 | 63 156 | -0.5 | 63 218 | -0.4 |
| December 2006 | 63 310 | 0.1 | 63 198 | 0.1 | 63 306 | 0.1 |
| January 2007 | 63 627 | 0.5 | 63 573 | 0.6 | 63 627 | 0.5 |
| February 2007 | 64 064 | 0.7 | 64 194 | 1.0 | 64 051 | 0.7 |
| March 2007 | 64 551 | 0.8 | 64 933 | 1.2 | 64 464 | 0.6 |
| April 2007 | 65 023 | 0.7 | 65 707 | 1.2 | 64 823 | 0.6 |
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