5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Nov 2008 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 14/01/2009   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The December 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the November 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.3%.

2 The December 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the November 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.3%.

The percentage change of 2.3% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 2.3%.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.3% on this month
(2) falls by 2.3% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
May 2008
53 175
-5.1
53 175
-5.1
53 175
-5.1
June 2008
51 045
-4.0
50 919
-4.2
50 963
-4.2
July 2008
49 763
-2.5
49 552
-2.7
49 629
-2.6
August 2008
49 025
-1.5
48 940
-1.2
48 978
-1.3
September 2008
48 551
-1.0
48 732
-0.4
48 631
-0.7
October 2008
48 279
-0.6
48 744
0.0
48 409
-0.5
November 2008
48 271
0.0
48 916
0.4
48 284
-0.3