5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Mar 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/05/2006   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates:


1 The April 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is higher than the March 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.


2 The April 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is lower than the March 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.


The percentage change of 3.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 3.0%.


Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: What If

What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 3% on this month
(2) falls by 3% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

October 2005
57 849
1.3
57 824
1.3
57 894
1.4
November 2005
58 392
0.9
58 353
0.9
58 475
1.0
December 2005
58 734
0.6
58 715
0.6
58 776
0.5
January 2006
58 991
0.4
59 051
0.6
58 890
0.2
February 2006
59 223
0.4
59 468
0.7
58 937
0.1
March 2006
59 335
0.2
59 922
0.8
58 922
-
April 2006
-
-
60 404
0.8
58 895
-

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)