5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Aug 2009 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/10/2009   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The September 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the August 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.3%.

2 The September 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the August 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.3%.

The percentage change chosen is the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.3% on this month
(2) falls by 2.3% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
February 2009
59 571
4.1
59 571
4.1
59 571
4.1
March 2009
61 464
3.2
61 526
3.3
61 582
3.4
April 2009
62 706
2.0
62 803
2.1
62 901
2.1
May 2009
63 408
1.1
63 447
1.0
63 495
0.9
June 2009
63 774
0.6
63 712
0.4
63 583
0.1
July 2009
63 902
0.2
63 806
0.1
63 379
-0.3
August 2009
63 820
-0.1
63 816
0.0
63 011
-0.6