5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, April 2018 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/06/2018   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The May 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the April 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

2 The May 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the April 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

The percentage change chosen is the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: Sensitivity Analysis
What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.1% on this month
(2) falls by 2.1% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

October 2017
56 039
-0.3
56 039
-0.3
56 039
-0.3
November 2017
55 602
-0.8
55 604
-0.8
55 644
-0.7
December 2017
55 016
-1.1
55 007
-1.1
55 078
-1.0
January 2018
54 388
-1.1
54 377
-1.1
54 412
-1.2
February 2018
53 751
-1.2
53 787
-1.1
53 694
-1.3
March 2018
53 148
-1.1
53 250
-1.0
52 941
-1.4
April 2018
52 588
-1.1
52 805
-0.8
52 223
-1.4