ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,709m in October 2018, an increase of $182m on the surplus in September 2018.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,316m in October 2018, a decrease of $624m on the surplus in September 2018.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Aug 2018	Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Oct 2018	Oct 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				2 298	2 940	2 316	-624	-21
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			37 232	37 552	38 045	493	1
		Total goods		29 160	29 383	29 782	399	1
			Rural goods(b)	4 169	4 157	3 880	-277	-7
			Non-rural goods(b)	22 950	23 709	24 728	1 019	4
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	18	19	31	12	63
			Non-monetary gold(c)	2 023	1 498	1 143	-355	-24
		Total services		8 072	8 170	8 263	93	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-34 934	-34 613	-35 729	1 116	3
		Total goods		-26 793	-26 469	-27 612	1 143	4
			Consumption goods	-8 637	-8 698	-8 803	105	1
			Capital goods	-6 750	-6 154	-6 635	481	8
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 988	-11 259	-11 841	582	5
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-418	-359	-333	-26	-7
		Total services		-8 141	-8 143	-8 118	-25	-
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				2 296	2 527	2 709	182	7
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			37 242	37 625	37 950	325	1
		Total goods		29 213	29 484	29 719	235	1
			Rural goods(b)	4 079	4 069	4 051	-18	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	23 394	23 786	24 149	363	2
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	18	22	26	4	18
			Non-monetary gold	1 723	1 608	1 492	-116	-7
		Total services		8 029	8 141	8 232	91	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-34 946	-35 098	-35 242	144	-
		Total goods		-26 859	-26 976	-27 084	108	-
			Consumption goods	-8 691	-8 719	-8 752	33	-
			Capital goods	-6 447	-6 475	-6 491	16	-
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-11 219	-11 355	-11 480	125	1
			Non-monetary gold	-503	-426	-362	-64	-15
		Total services		-8 087	-8 122	-8 157	35	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between September and October 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $325m (1%) to $37,950m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $493m (1%) to $38,045m. Non-rural goods rose $1,019m (4%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $12m (63%). Non-monetary gold fell $355m (24%) and rural goods fell $277m (7%). Services credits rose $93m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Aug 2018	Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Oct 2018	Oct 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				29 160	29 383	29 782	399	1
	General merchandise			27 119	27 866	28 608	742	3
		Rural goods		4 169	4 157	3 880	-277	-7
			Meat and meat preparations	1 264	1 189	1 153	-36	-3
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	546	551	466	-85	-15
			Wool and sheepskins	377	432	373	-59	-14
			Other rural(a)	1 982	1 985	1 889	-96	-5
		Non-rural goods		22 950	23 709	24 728	1 019	4
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	7 443	7 988	7 944	-44	-1
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	5 566	5 435	6 112	677	12
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	4 675	5 008	5 215	207	4
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	1 188	1 099	1 131	32	3
			Machinery	895	893	926	33	4
			Transport equipment	343	397	386	-11	-3
			Other manufactures	1 861	1 900	2 051	151	8
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	809	801	774	-27	-3
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	170	188	190	2	1
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			18	19	31	12	63
	Non-monetary gold(e)			2 023	1 498	1 143	-355	-24
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $18m to $4,051m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $277m (7%) to $3,880m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, down $96m (5%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $85m (15%)
• wool and sheepskins, down $59m (14%)
• meat and meat preparations, down $36m (3%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $363m (2%) to $24,149m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,019m (4%) to $24,728m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, up $677m (12%)
• other mineral fuels, up $207m (4%)
• other manufactures, up $151m (8%).

Partly offsetting these rises was metal ores and minerals, down $44m (1%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $4m (18%) to $26m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $12m (63%) to $31m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $116m (7%) to $1,492m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $355m (24%) to $1,143m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Aug 2018	Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Oct 2018	Oct 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			8 072	8 170	8 263	93	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		3	2	3	1	50
	Transport		668	672	675	3	-
		Passenger(b)	250	252	255	3	1
		Freight(c)	23	23	25	2	9
		Other	259	261	265	4	2
		Postal and courier services(d)	136	137	130	-7	-5
	Travel		5 298	5 395	5 518	123	2
	Other services		2 103	2 101	2 067	-34	-2
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		5 547	5 647	5 773	126	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $91m (1%) to $8,232m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $93m (1%) to $8,263m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $123m (2%).

Partly offsetting this rise was other services, down $34m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $126m (2%) to $5,773m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 22% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between September and October 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $144m to $35,242m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,116m (3%) to $35,729m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $582m (5%), capital goods rose $481m (8%) and consumption goods rose $105m (1%). Non-monetary gold fell $26m (7%). Services debits fell $25m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Aug 2018	Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Oct 2018	Oct 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-26 793	-26 469	-27 612	1 143	4
	General merchandise			-26 375	-26 110	-27 279	1 169	4
		Consumption goods		-8 637	-8 698	-8 803	105	1
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 296	-1 338	-1 320	-18	-1
			Household electrical items	-494	-534	-544	10	2
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-2 016	-1 965	-1 954	-11	-1
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 549	-1 569	-1 642	73	5
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-546	-559	-565	6	1
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 737	-2 732	-2 778	46	2
		Capital goods		-6 750	-6 154	-6 635	481	8
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-2 045	-1 946	-2 055	109	6
			ADP equipment	-1 006	-996	-1 084	88	9
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 231	-1 226	-1 381	155	13
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-670	-371	-469	98	26
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-1 113	-1 050	-1 021	-29	-3
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-686	-566	-625	59	10
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-10 988	-11 259	-11 841	582	5
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-159	-152	-169	17	11
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-321	-221	-134	-87	-39
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 263	-3 536	-3 926	390	11
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 080	-1 090	-1 126	36	3
			Parts for ADP equipment	-48	-51	-60	9	18
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 564	-1 521	-1 609	88	6
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-306	-293	-320	27	9
			Paper and paperboard	-204	-212	-221	9	4
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-123	-129	-129	-	-
			Iron and steel	-261	-310	-301	-9	-3
			Plastics	-403	-416	-417	1	-
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-3 009	-3 180	-3 229	49	2
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-120	-21	-75	54	257
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-127	-128	-126	-2	-2
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-418	-359	-333	-26	-7
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $33m to $8,752m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $105m (1%) to $8,803m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $73m (5%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., up $46m (2%).

Partly offsetting these rises was food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $18m (1%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $16m to $6,491m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $481m (8%) to $6,635m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• telecommunications equipment, up $155m (13%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, up $109m (6%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $98m (26%)
• ADP equipment, up $88m (9%).

Partly offsetting these rises was industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $29m (3%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $125m (1%) to $11,480m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $582m (5%) to $11,841m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $390m (11%)
• other parts for capital goods, up $88m (6%)
• other merchandise goods, up $54m
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $49m (2%).

Partly offsetting these rises was primary industrial supplies n.e.s., down $87m (39%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $64m (15%) to $362m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $26m (7%) to $333m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Aug 2018	Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Oct 2018	Oct 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-8 141	-8 143	-8 118	-25	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-50	-67	-74	7	10
	Transport		-1 547	-1 570	-1 576	6	-
		Passenger(c)	-607	-618	-628	10	2
		Freight	-852	-863	-859	-4	-
		Other(b)	-81	-82	-82	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-7	-7	-8	1	14
	Travel		-4 166	-4 125	-4 113	-12	-
	Other services		-2 379	-2 382	-2 354	-28	-1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 773	-4 742	-4 741	-1	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $35m to $8,157m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $25m to $8,118m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was other services, down $28m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $1m to $4,741m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 23% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in:
		May 2018	Jun 2018	Jul 2018	Aug 2018	Sep 2018	Oct 2018
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	3	-	-3	-3	1	-
	Unit value	1	3	5	-	7	5
Fines
	Quantity	4	-2	-12	9	-1	-4
	Unit value	-1	-3	3	2	3	3
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	24	7	-11	-4	7	2
	Unit value	-1	-2	2	-1	p-1	p5
Semi-soft
	Quantity	23	2	-19	17	-7	7
	Unit value	-	-	2	-2	p-1	p -
Thermal
	Quantity	-7	13	10	-9	-8	12
	Unit value	3	3	7	5	-2	1
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	-8	11	16	-	-4	9
	Unit value	4	2	3	6	6	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between September and October 2018 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $82m (5%), with unit values up 5%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $54m (32%), with quantities up 20% and unit values up 9%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $39m (3%), with quantities down 2% and unit values up 5%
• Malaysia rose $13m, following no exports in September 2018
• the Republic of Korea fell $32m (34%), with quantities down 32% and unit values down 2%.

Iron ore fines, down $19m (1%), with quantities down 4% and unit values up 3%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $28m (1%), with quantities down 4% and unit values up 3%
• Taiwan fell $27m (40%), with quantities down 42% and unit values up 4%
• India fell $26m (100%), with no exports in October 2018
• the Republic of Korea rose $90m (50%), with quantities up 40% and unit values up 8%.

Hard coking coal, up $180m (7%), with quantities up 2% and unit values up 5%. Exports to:

• India rose $112m (17%), with quantities up 10% and unit values up 7%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $81m (11%), with quantities up 6% and unit values up 5%
• Netherlands rose $69m (94%), with quantities up 89% and unit values up 3%
• Vietnam fell $61m (63%), with quantities down 65% and unit values up 5%.

Semi-soft coal, up $56m (6%), with quantities up 7%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $40m (30%), with quantities up 23% and unit values up 6%
• Japan rose $26m (10%), with quantities up 11% and unit values down 1%
• the Republic of Korea rose $19m (16%), with quantities up 22% and unit values down 4%
• India rose $13m (9%), with quantities up 5% and unit values up 3%
• Taiwan fell $39m (37%), with quantities down 38% and unit values up 1%.

Thermal coal, up $276m (13%), with quantities up 12% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $335m (37%), with quantities up 38% and unit values down 1%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $66m (21%), with quantities up 25% and unit values down 3%
• Taiwan fell $74m (24%), with quantities down 23% and unit values down 1%
• India fell $49m (62%), with quantiies down 68% and unit values up 19%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $329m (8%), with quantities up 9% and unit values down 1%.


COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the financial year 2017-18. The charts include both trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade, i.e., combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows total exports and total imports for each of these countries.





Combining trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some components will be excluded (e.g. merchanting credits and goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others component, will be double counted. These components are unlikely to impact on the broader analysis.

Exports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are now being excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown in the time series spreadsheet table 14a. In 2017-18, these restrictions represented 1.71% of the total exports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

Imports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2017-18, these restrictions represented 3.99% of the total imports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

For further details about these restrictions see Explanatory Notes paragraphs 26-28.