ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,259m in November 2018, a decrease of $7m on the surplus in October 2018.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,925m in November 2018, a decrease of $88m on the surplus in October 2018.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Nov 2018	Nov 2018	Nov 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				2 793	2 013	1 925	-88	-4
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			37 518	37 913	38 445	532	1
		Total goods		29 540	29 879	30 354	475	2
			Rural goods(b)	4 063	3 772	3 738	-34	-1
			Non-rural goods(b)	23 958	24 927	24 754	-173	-1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	22	37	37	-	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 498	1 143	1 824	681	60
		Total services		7 977	8 035	8 092	57	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-34 724	-35 900	-36 520	620	2
		Total goods		-26 477	-27 682	-28 325	643	2
			Consumption goods	-8 712	-8 836	-9 038	202	2
			Capital goods	-6 146	-6 648	-7 081	433	7
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-11 261	-11 871	-11 849	-22	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-359	-327	-357	30	9
		Total services		-8 247	-8 217	-8 195	-22	-
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				2 208	2 266	2 259	-7	-
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			37 617	37 967	38 198	231	1
		Total goods		29 634	29 927	30 114	187	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 977	3 910	3 842	-68	-2
			Non-rural goods(b)	23 975	24 400	24 723	323	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	27	32	36	4	13
			Non-monetary gold	1 655	1 585	1 513	-72	-5
		Total services		7 983	8 040	8 084	44	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-35 409	-35 701	-35 938	237	1
		Total goods		-27 199	-27 462	-27 682	220	1
			Consumption goods	-8 768	-8 832	-8 873	41	-
			Capital goods	-6 548	-6 648	-6 751	103	2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-11 459	-11 620	-11 751	131	1
			Non-monetary gold	-425	-362	-306	-56	-15
		Total services		-8 210	-8 239	-8 257	18	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between October and November 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $231m (1%) to $38,198m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $532m (1%) to $38,445m. Non-monetary gold rose $681m (60%). Non-rural goods fell $173m (1%) and rural goods fell $34m (1%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $37m. Services credits rose $57m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Nov 2018	Nov 2018	Nov 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				29 540	29 879	30 354	475	2
	General merchandise			28 020	28 699	28 493	-206	-1
		Rural goods		4 063	3 772	3 738	-34	-1
			Meat and meat preparations	1 170	1 143	1 168	25	2
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	543	433	437	4	1
			Wool and sheepskins	415	358	328	-30	-8
			Other rural(a)	1 935	1 838	1 805	-33	-2
		Non-rural goods		23 958	24 927	24 754	-173	-1
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	8 065	8 022	8 339	317	4
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	5 476	6 136	5 593	-543	-9
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	5 146	5 322	5 412	90	2
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	1 097	1 124	1 131	7	1
			Machinery	892	916	901	-15	-2
			Transport equipment	388	379	346	-33	-9
			Other manufactures	1 894	2 033	1 975	-58	-3
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	812	806	866	60	7
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	188	189	192	3	2
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			22	37	37	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 498	1 143	1 824	681	60
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $68m (2%) to $3,842m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $34m (1%) to $3,738m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, down $33m (2%)
• wool and sheepskins, down $30m (8%).

Partly offsetting these falls was meat and meat preparations, up $25m (2%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $323m (1%) to $24,723m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $173m (1%) to $24,754m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was coal, coke and briquettes, down $543m (9%).

Partly offsetting this fall were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $317m (4%)
• other mineral fuels, up $90m (2%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $4m (13%) to $36m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $37m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $72m (5%) to $1,513m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $681m (60%) to $1,824m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Nov 2018	Nov 2018	Nov 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			7 977	8 035	8 092	57	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		3	3	3	-	-
	Transport		640	645	647	2	-
		Passenger(b)	249	252	254	2	1
		Freight(c)	27	35	34	-1	-3
		Other	232	238	238	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	132	121	121	-	-
	Travel		5 248	5 337	5 378	41	1
	Other services		2 086	2 050	2 064	14	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		5 497	5 589	5 632	43	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
na not available
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $44m (1%) to $8,084m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $57m (1%) to $8,092m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $41m (1%)
• other services, up $14m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $43m (1%) to $5,632m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 21% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between October and November 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $237m (1%) to $35,938m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $620m (2%) to $36,520m. Capital goods rose $433m (7%), consumption goods rose $202m (2%) and non-monetary gold rose $30m (9%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $22m. Services debits fell $22m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Nov 2018	Nov 2018	Nov 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-26 477	-27 682	-28 325	643	2
	General merchandise			-26 118	-27 355	-27 968	613	2
		Consumption goods		-8 712	-8 836	-9 038	202	2
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 329	-1 315	-1 280	-35	-3
			Household electrical items	-527	-541	-522	-19	-4
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 983	-1 983	-2 123	140	7
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 567	-1 641	-1 644	3	-
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-560	-574	-616	42	7
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 746	-2 783	-2 854	71	3
		Capital goods		-6 146	-6 648	-7 081	433	7
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 959	-2 051	-2 055	4	-
			ADP equipment	-983	-1 092	-995	-97	-9
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 199	-1 355	-1 207	-148	-11
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-366	-469	-837	368	78
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-1 069	-1 029	-1 107	78	8
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-569	-652	-880	228	35
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-11 261	-11 871	-11 849	-22	-
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-153	-168	-161	-7	-4
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-220	-134	-222	88	66
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 525	-3 923	-3 778	-145	-4
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 088	-1 122	-1 112	-10	-1
			Parts for ADP equipment	-52	-59	-70	11	19
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 525	-1 613	-1 638	25	2
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-290	-316	-287	-29	-9
			Paper and paperboard	-212	-221	-221	-	-
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-129	-130	-129	-1	-1
			Iron and steel	-316	-311	-362	51	16
			Plastics	-414	-416	-413	-3	-1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-3 181	-3 243	-3 289	46	1
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-20	-81	-34	-47	-58
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-135	-134	-134	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-359	-327	-357	30	9
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $41m to $8,873m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $202m (2%) to $9,038m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, up $140m (7%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., up $71m (3%)
• toys, books and leisure goods, up $42m (7%).

Partly offsetting these rises was food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $35m (3%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $103m (2%) to $6,751m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $433m (7%) to $7,081m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $368m (78%)
• capital goods n.e.s., up $228m (35%).

Partly offsetting these rises was telecommunications equipment, down $148m (11%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $131m (1%) to $11,751m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $22m to $11,849m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, down $145m (4%).

Partly offsetting this fall was primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $88m (66%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $56m (15%) to $306m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $30m (9%) to $357m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Nov 2018	Nov 2018	Nov 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-8 247	-8 217	-8 195	-22	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-65	-72	-93	21	29
	Transport		-1 582	-1 582	-1 587	5	-
		Passenger(c)	-612	-615	-613	-2	-
		Freight	-882	-876	-882	6	1
		Other(b)	-75	-77	-77	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-14	-15	-15	-	-
	Travel		-4 098	-4 078	-4 014	-64	-2
	Other services		-2 501	-2 485	-2 501	16	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 710	-4 693	-4 627	-66	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $18m to $8,257m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $22m to $8,195m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $64m (2%).

Partly offsetting this fall were:

• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., up $21m (29%)
• other services, up $16m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $66m (1%) to $4,627m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 22% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in:
		Jun 2018	Jul 2018	Aug 2018	Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Nov 2018
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-	-3	-3	1	-1	-5
	Unit value	2	5	1	7	5	-1
Fines
	Quantity	-2	-12	9	-1	-3	-4
	Unit value	-3	3	2	3	4	1
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	7	-11	-4	8	1	-5
	Unit value	-2	2	-1	p1	p4	-1
Semi-soft
	Quantity	2	-19	17	-6	4	11
	Unit value	-	2	-2	p-1	p -	-1
Thermal
	Quantity	13	10	-9	-8	12	-19
	Unit value	3	7	5	-2	1	-3
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	11	16	-	-5	8	2
	Unit value	2	3	6	6	-	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between October and November 2018 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $105m (6%), with quantities down 5% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $80m (6%), with quantities down 6% and unit values down 1%
• Japan fell $62m (28%), with quantities down 22% and unit values down 7%
• the Republic of Korea rose $42m (66%), with quantities up 58% and unit values up 5%.

Iron ore fines, down $121m (3%), with quantities down 4% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea fell $101m (34%), with quantities down 33% and unit values down 2%
• Japan fell $49m (23%), with quantities down 19% and unit values down 5%
• Taiwan rose $22m (43%), with quantities up 60% and unit values down 10%.

Hard coking coal, down $144m (5%), with quantities down 5% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $317m (39%), with quantities down 37% and unit values down 3%
• Spain rose $72m, following no exports in October 2018
• Japan rose $62m (21%), with quantities up 18% and unit values up 2%
• the Republic of Korea rose $40m (29%), with quantities up 28%.

Semi-soft coal, up $91m (10%), with quantities up 11% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• India rose $52m (31%), with quantities up 31%
• the Republic of Korea rose $41m (30%), with quantities up 37% and unit values down 5%.

Thermal coal, down $548m (22%), with quantities down 19% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $352m (28%), with quantities down 26% and unit values down 2%
• the Republic of Korea fell $123m (33%), with quantities down 31% and unit values down 3%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $92m (2%), with quantities up 2%.