ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,425m in July 2018, an increase of $17m on the surplus in June 2018.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,551m in July 2018, a decrease of $386m on the surplus in June 2018.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				May 2018	Jun 2018	Jul 2018	Jul 2018	Jul 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				772	1 937	1 551	-386	-20
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			35 529	36 432	36 070	-362	-1
		Total goods		28 229	29 048	28 652	-396	-1
			Rural goods(b)	3 980	4 140	4 064	-76	-2
			Non-rural goods(b)	22 373	22 928	22 790	-138	-1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	4	4	11	7	175
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 872	1 976	1 787	-189	-10
		Total services		7 299	7 384	7 418	34	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-34 757	-34 495	-34 519	24	-
		Total goods		-27 111	-26 859	-26 774	-85	-
			Consumption goods	-8 953	-8 906	-8 577	-329	-4
			Capital goods	-6 280	-6 602	-6 173	-429	-6
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-11 128	-10 713	-11 318	605	6
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-750	-638	-707	69	11
		Total services		-7 646	-7 636	-7 745	109	1
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				1 242	1 408	1 425	17	1
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			35 487	35 831	36 074	243	1
		Total goods		28 188	28 479	28 678	199	1
			Rural goods(b)	4 036	4 089	4 136	47	1
			Non-rural goods(b)	22 340	22 563	22 723	160	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	4	5	7	2	40
			Non-monetary gold	1 808	1 821	1 812	-9	-
		Total services		7 299	7 352	7 397	45	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-34 245	-34 424	-34 649	225	1
		Total goods		-26 549	-26 746	-26 964	218	1
			Consumption goods	-8 749	-8 751	-8 771	20	-
			Capital goods	-6 313	-6 339	-6 364	25	-
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 809	-10 955	-11 107	152	1
			Non-monetary gold	-677	-701	-722	21	3
		Total services		-7 696	-7 678	-7 685	7	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between June and July 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $243m (1%) to $36,074m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $362m (1%) to $36,070m. Non-monetary gold fell $189m (10%), non-rural goods fell $138m (1%) and rural goods fell $76m (2%). Net exports of goods under merchanting rose $7m. Services credits rose $34m.


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				May 2018	Jun 2018	Jul 2018	Jul 2018	Jul 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				28 229	29 048	28 652	-396	-1
	General merchandise			26 353	27 068	26 854	-214	-1
		Rural goods		3 980	4 140	4 064	-76	-2
			Meat and meat preparations	1 140	1 166	1 178	12	1
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	672	730	653	-77	-11
			Wool and sheepskins	395	380	350	-30	-8
			Other rural(a)	1 773	1 865	1 884	19	1
		Non-rural goods		22 373	22 928	22 790	-138	-1
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	7 924	7 970	7 603	-367	-5
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	5 394	5 431	5 612	181	3
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	4 165	4 262	4 222	-40	-1
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	909	997	1 367	370	37
			Machinery	911	901	936	35	4
			Transport equipment	316	366	330	-36	-10
			Other manufactures	1 800	1 886	1 883	-3	-
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	792	935	660	-275	-29
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	162	179	175	-4	-2
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			4	4	11	7	175
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 872	1 976	1 787	-189	-10
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $47m (1%) to $4,136m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $76m (2%) to $4,064m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $77m (11%)
• wool and sheepskins, down $30m (8%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• other rural, up $19m (1%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $12m (1%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $160m (1%) to $22,723m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $138m (1%) to $22,790m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, down $367m (5%)
• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), down $275m (29%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $370m (37%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $181m (3%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $2m (40%) to $7m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $7m to $11m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $9m to $1,812m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $189m (10%) to $1,787m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			May 2018	Jun 2018	Jul 2018	Jul 2018	Jul 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			7 299	7 384	7 418	34	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		4	4	4	-	-
	Transport		610	610	627	17	3
		Passenger(b)	246	244	249	5	2
		Freight(c)	24	24	24	-	-
		Other	219	218	224	6	3
		Postal and courier services(d)	121	123	130	7	6
	Travel		4 701	4 786	4 759	-27	-1
	Other services		1 985	1 984	2 028	44	2
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		4 946	5 030	5 008	-22	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $45m (1%) to $7,397m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $34m to $7,418m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other services, up $44m (2%)
• transport, up $17m (3%).

Partly offsetting these rises was travel, down $27m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $22m to $5,008m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 21% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between June and July 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $225m (1%) to $34,649m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $24m to $34,519m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $605m (6%) and non-monetary gold rose $69m (11%). Capital goods fell $429m (6%) and consumption goods fell $329m (4%). Services debits rose $109m (1%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				May 2018	Jun 2018	Jul 2018	Jul 2018	Jul 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-27 111	-26 859	-26 774	-85	-
	General merchandise			-26 361	-26 221	-26 067	-154	-1
		Consumption goods		-8 953	-8 906	-8 577	-329	-4
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 286	-1 309	-1 255	-54	-4
			Household electrical items	-535	-540	-514	-26	-5
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-2 076	-2 009	-2 001	-8	-
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 620	-1 639	-1 490	-149	-9
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-612	-607	-580	-27	-4
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 823	-2 802	-2 737	-65	-2
		Capital goods		-6 280	-6 602	-6 173	-429	-6
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-2 049	-2 045	-2 001	-44	-2
			ADP equipment	-913	-966	-929	-37	-4
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 077	-1 087	-1 039	-48	-4
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-432	-488	-249	-239	-49
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-1 172	-1 279	-1 243	-36	-3
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-637	-737	-712	-25	-3
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-11 128	-10 713	-11 318	605	6
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-151	-192	-145	-47	-24
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-115	-233	-183	-50	-21
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 397	-3 031	-3 743	712	23
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 141	-1 084	-1 093	9	1
			Parts for ADP equipment	-56	-49	-48	-1	-2
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 569	-1 553	-1 536	-17	-1
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-311	-296	-324	28	9
			Paper and paperboard	-202	-208	-200	-8	-4
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-131	-132	-129	-3	-2
			Iron and steel	-352	-332	-345	13	4
			Plastics	-409	-399	-403	4	1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-3 137	-3 063	-3 007	-56	-2
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-41	-25	-39	14	56
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-116	-116	-122	6	5
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-750	-638	-707	69	11
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $20m to $8,771m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $329m (4%) to $8,577m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $149m (9%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., down $65m (2%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $54m (4%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $25m to $6,364m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $429m (6%) to $6,173m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $239m (49%)
• telecommunications equipment, down $48m (4%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, down $44m (2%)
• ADP equipment, down $37m (4%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $36m (3%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $152m (1%) to $11,107m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $605m (6%) to $11,318m.

The main component contributing to the rise was fuels and lubricants, up $712m (23%).


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $21m (3%) to $722m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $69m (11%) to $707m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			May 2018	Jun 2018	Jul 2018	Jul 2018	Jul 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-7 646	-7 636	-7 745	109	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-32	-60	-60	-	-
	Transport		-1 503	-1 460	-1 483	23	2
		Passenger(c)	-566	-556	-585	29	5
		Freight	-854	-822	-811	-11	-1
		Other(b)	-70	-69	-78	9	13
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-13	-12	-10	-2	-17
	Travel		-3 761	-3 740	-3 807	67	2
	Other services		-2 350	-2 376	-2 394	18	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 328	-4 297	-4 392	95	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $7m to $7,685m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $109m (1%) to $7,745m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $67m (2%)
• transport, up $23m (2%)
• other services, up $18m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $95m (2%) to $4,392m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 22% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		Feb 2018	Mar 2018	Apr 2018	May 2018	Jun 2018	Jul 2018
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-2	10	2	3	-1	-3
	Unit value	8	-3	-6	1	1	6
Fines
	Quantity	-3	9	6	4	-2	-12
	Unit value	3	-5	-6	-1	-2	1
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-15	8	-9	26	1	-9
	Unit value	4	1	-6	-1	p-3	p1
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-13	3	-15	21	5	-18
	Unit value	7	6	2	-	p1	p-5
Thermal
	Quantity	-8	7	7	-8	13	10
	Unit value	4	1	-5	p3	2	p4
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	-7	3	-2	-8	12	19
	Unit value	8	1	3	5	2	-4
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between June and July 2018 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $39m (3%), with quantities down 3% and unit values up 6%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $64m (6%), with quantities down 1% and unit values up 7%
• the Republic of Korea rose $20m (31%), with quantities up 33% and unit values down 1%
• Taiwan fell $18m (25%), with quantities down 30% and unit values up 6%
• Vietnam fell $17m (63%), with quantities down 65% and unit values up 5%.

Iron ore fines, down $410m (11%), with quantities down 12% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $343m (11%), with quantities down 13% and unit values up 2%
• Vietnam fell $36m (87%), with quantities down 86% and unit values down 4%
• Japan fell $33m (13%), with quantities down 5% and unit values down 8%.

Hard coking coal, down $214m (8%), with quantities down 9% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $354m (40%), with quantities down 42% and unit values up 4%
• Japan rose $137m (52%), with quantities up 58% and unit values down 4%.

Semi-soft coal, down $217m (22%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 5%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $116m (63%), with quantities down 59% and unit values down 10%
• Brazil fell $54m (73%), with quantities down 65% and unit values down 25%
• the Republic of Korea fell $22m (13%), with quantities down 11% and unit values down 2%
• Vietnam fell $14m, with no exports in July 2018.

Thermal coal, up $305m (14%), with quantities up 10% and unit values up 4%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $312m (39%), with quantities up 37% and unit values up 1%
• Taiwan rose $97m (44%), with quantities up 33% and unit values up 8%
• the Republic of Korea rose $57m (24%), with quantities up 27% and unit values down 2%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) down $173m (27%), with quantities down 28% and unit values up 2%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $464m (14%), with quantities up 19% and unit values down 4%.