ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS
BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES
In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,684m in January 2019, an increase of $400m on the surplus in December 2018.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $4,549m in January 2019, an increase of $780m on the surplus in December 2018.
GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend |
|
 | | | | | | | Change in: |
| | | | Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 |
| | | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| BALANCE on goods and services | 2 206 | 3 769 | 4 549 | 780 | 21 |
| CREDITS | | | | | |
| Total goods and services | 38 477 | 38 036 | 39 937 | 1 901 | 5 |
| | Total goods | 30 517 | 30 063 | 31 918 | 1 855 | 6 |
| | | Rural goods(b) | 3 733 | 4 110 | 4 207 | 97 | 2 |
| | | Non-rural goods(b) | 24 923 | 25 127 | 25 523 | 396 | 2 |
| | | Net exports of goods under merchanting(c) | 37 | 36 | 24 | -12 | -33 |
| | | Non-monetary gold(c) | 1 824 | 790 | 2 163 | 1 373 | 174 |
| | Total services | 7 959 | 7 973 | 8 019 | 46 | 1 |
| DEBITS | | | | | |
| Total goods and services | -36 271 | -34 267 | -35 388 | 1 121 | 3 |
| | Total goods | -28 008 | -25 812 | -27 124 | 1 312 | 5 |
| | | Consumption goods | -9 026 | -8 399 | -8 882 | 483 | 6 |
| | | Capital goods | -6 933 | -5 953 | -6 690 | 737 | 12 |
| | | Intermediate and other merchandise goods | -11 693 | -10 942 | -11 099 | 157 | 1 |
| | | Non-monetary gold(c) | -357 | -518 | -453 | -65 | -13 |
| | Total services | -8 263 | -8 455 | -8 264 | -191 | -2 |
Trend(d) |
|
| BALANCE on goods and services | 2 908 | 3 284 | 3 684 | 400 | 12 |
| CREDITS | | | | | |
| Total goods and services | 38 299 | 38 652 | 38 991 | 339 | 1 |
| | Total goods | 30 328 | 30 660 | 30 981 | 321 | 1 |
| | | Rural goods(b) | 3 971 | 3 988 | 4 024 | 36 | 1 |
| | | Non-rural goods(b) | 24 860 | 25 171 | 25 416 | 245 | 1 |
| | | Net exports of goods under merchanting | 33 | 34 | 33 | -1 | -3 |
| | | Non-monetary gold | 1 464 | 1 467 | 1 507 | 40 | 3 |
| | Total services | 7 970 | 7 992 | 8 010 | 18 | - |
| DEBITS | | | | | |
| Total goods and services | -35 391 | -35 368 | -35 307 | -61 | - |
| | Total goods | -27 072 | -27 037 | -26 971 | -66 | - |
| | | Consumption goods | -8 747 | -8 760 | -8 771 | 11 | - |
| | | Capital goods | -6 534 | -6 527 | -6 531 | 4 | - |
| | | Intermediate and other merchandise goods | -11 399 | -11 350 | -11 254 | -96 | -1 |
| | | Non-monetary gold | -392 | -400 | -415 | 15 | 4 |
| | Total services | -8 319 | -8 331 | -8 336 | 5 | - |
|
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
| (a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes. |
| (b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods. |
| (c) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
| (d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes. |
EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Between December 2018 and January 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $339m (1%) to $38,991m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,901m (5%) to $39,937m. Non-monetary gold rose $1,373m, non-rural goods rose $396m (2%) and rural goods rose $97m (2%). Net exports of goods under merchanting fell $12m (33%). Services credits rose $46m (1%).
Exports of goods
GOODS CREDITS
GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| | | | | | | Change in: |
| | | | Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 |
| | | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
|
| Total goods credits | 30 517 | 30 063 | 31 918 | 1 855 | 6 |
| General merchandise | 28 656 | 29 237 | 29 731 | 494 | 2 |
| | Rural goods | 3 733 | 4 110 | 4 207 | 97 | 2 |
| | | Meat and meat preparations | 1 164 | 1 189 | 1 258 | 69 | 6 |
| | | Cereal grains and cereal preparations | 437 | 745 | 612 | -133 | -18 |
| | | Wool and sheepskins | 324 | 313 | 363 | 50 | 16 |
| | | Other rural(a) | 1 808 | 1 863 | 1 974 | 111 | 6 |
| | Non-rural goods | 24 923 | 25 127 | 25 523 | 396 | 2 |
| | | Metal ores and minerals(b) | 8 425 | 8 306 | 8 585 | 279 | 3 |
| | | Coal, coke and briquettes(c) | 5 698 | 5 652 | 6 003 | 351 | 6 |
| | | Other mineral fuels(b)(d) | 5 424 | 5 349 | 5 400 | 51 | 1 |
| | | Metals (excl. non-monetary gold) | 1 120 | 1 265 | 1 203 | -62 | -5 |
| | | Machinery | 899 | 955 | 942 | -13 | -1 |
| | | Transport equipment | 347 | 780 | 455 | -325 | -42 |
| | | Other manufactures | 1 952 | 1 801 | 1 903 | 102 | 6 |
| | | Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a) | 877 | 854 | 903 | 49 | 6 |
| | | Goods procured in ports by carriers(d) | 181 | 164 | 129 | -35 | -21 |
| Net exports of goods under merchanting(e) | 37 | 36 | 24 | -12 | -33 |
| Non-monetary gold(e) | 1 824 | 790 | 2 163 | 1 373 | 174 |
|
| (a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural. |
| (b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series. |
| (c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series. |
| (d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern. |
| (e) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
RURAL GOODS
In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $36m (1%) to $4,024m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $97m (2%) to $4,207m.
The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- other rural, up $111m (6%)
- meat and meat preparations, up $69m (6%)
- wool and sheepskins, up $50m (16%).
Partly offsetting these rises was cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $133m (18%).
NON-RURAL GOODS
In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $245m (1%) to $25,416m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $396m (2%) to $25,523m.
The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- coal, coke and briquettes, up $351m (6%)
- metal ores and minerals, up $279m (3%)
- other manufactures, up $102m (6%).
Partly offsetting these rises were:
- transport equipment, down $325m (42%)
- metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $62m (5%).
For price and volume details, see the
Selected commodities section.
NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING
In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (3%) to $33m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $12m (33%) to $24m.
NON-MONETARY GOLD
In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $40m (3%) to $1,507m.
In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $1,373m to $2,163m.
Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| | | | | | Change in: |
| | | Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 |
| | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
|
| Total services credits | 7 959 | 7 973 | 8 019 | 46 | 1 |
| Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a) | 4 | 4 | 4 | - | - |
| Transport | 647 | 652 | 655 | 3 | - |
| | Passenger(b) | 254 | 260 | 261 | 1 | - |
| | Freight(c) | 33 | 33 | 31 | -2 | -6 |
| | Other | 238 | 238 | 243 | 5 | 2 |
| | Postal and courier services(d) | 121 | 121 | 119 | -2 | -2 |
| Travel | 5 244 | 5 238 | 5 268 | 30 | 1 |
| Other services | 2 064 | 2 079 | 2 093 | 14 | 1 |
| Memorandum item | | | | | |
| Tourism related services credits(e) | 5 498 | 5 498 | 5 529 | 31 | 1 |
|
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
| (a) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
| (b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport. |
| (c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern. |
| (d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport. |
| (e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes. |
|
In trend terms, services credits rose $18m to $8,010m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $46m (1%) to $8,019m.
The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $30m (1%).
In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $31m (1%) to $5,529m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 20% of total goods and services exported.
IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Between December 2018 and January 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $61m to $35,307m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,121m (3%) to $35,388m. Capital goods rose $737m (12%), consumption goods rose $483m (6%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $157m (1%). Non-monetary gold fell $65m (13%). Services debits fell $191m (2%).
Imports of goods
GOODS DEBITS
GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| | | | | | | Change in: |
| | | | Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 |
| | | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
|
| Total goods debits | -28 008 | -25 812 | -27 124 | 1 312 | 5 |
| General merchandise | -27 651 | -25 294 | -26 671 | 1 377 | 5 |
| | Consumption goods | -9 026 | -8 399 | -8 882 | 483 | 6 |
| | | Food and beverages, mainly for consumption | -1 282 | -1 311 | -1 388 | 77 | 6 |
| | | Household electrical items | -526 | -524 | -558 | 34 | 6 |
| | | Non-industrial transport equipment | -2 150 | -1 611 | -1 829 | 218 | 14 |
| | | Textiles, clothing and footwear | -1 611 | -1 590 | -1 552 | -38 | -2 |
| | | Toys, books and leisure goods | -613 | -557 | -565 | 8 | 1 |
| | | Consumption goods n.e.s. | -2 843 | -2 805 | -2 990 | 185 | 7 |
| | Capital goods | -6 933 | -5 953 | -6 690 | 737 | 12 |
| | | Machinery and industrial equipment | -2 035 | -1 842 | -2 120 | 278 | 15 |
| | | ADP equipment | -982 | -883 | -1 027 | 144 | 16 |
| | | Telecommunications equipment | -1 138 | -1 070 | -1 103 | 33 | 3 |
| | | Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c) | -834 | -325 | -390 | 65 | 20 |
| | | Industrial transport equipment n.e.s. | -1 106 | -1 000 | -1 435 | 435 | 44 |
| | | Capital goods n.e.s.(d) | -837 | -834 | -614 | -220 | -26 |
| | Intermediate and other merchandise goods | -11 693 | -10 942 | -11 099 | 157 | 1 |
| | | Food and beverages, mainly for industry | -162 | -166 | -167 | 1 | 1 |
| | | Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d) | -212 | -159 | -146 | -13 | -8 |
| | | Fuels and lubricants(c) | -3 690 | -3 402 | -3 254 | -148 | -4 |
| | | Parts for transport equipment | -1 114 | -1 143 | -1 157 | 14 | 1 |
| | | Parts for ADP equipment | -68 | -52 | -57 | 5 | 10 |
| | | Other parts for capital goods | -1 621 | -1 474 | -1 586 | 112 | 8 |
| | | Organic and inorganic chemicals | -286 | -310 | -294 | -16 | -5 |
| | | Paper and paperboard | -220 | -211 | -216 | 5 | 2 |
| | | Textile yarn and fabrics | -128 | -129 | -134 | 5 | 4 |
| | | Iron and steel | -369 | -321 | -335 | 14 | 4 |
| | | Plastics | -408 | -369 | -394 | 25 | 7 |
| | | Processed industrial supplies n.e.s. | -3 245 | -3 040 | -3 154 | 114 | 4 |
| | | Other merchandise goods(b)(e) | -34 | -33 | -76 | 43 | 130 |
| | | Goods procured in ports by carriers(c) | -134 | -134 | -127 | -7 | -5 |
| Non-monetary gold(c) | -357 | -518 | -453 | -65 | -13 |
|
| (a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes. |
| (b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods. |
| (c) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
| (d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern. |
| (e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted. |
CONSUMPTION GOODS
In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $11m to $8,771m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $483m (6%) to $8,882m.
The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- non-industrial transport equipment, up $218m (14%)
- consumption goods n.e.s., up $185m (7%).
CAPITAL GOODS
In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $4m to $6,531m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $737m (12%) to $6,690m.
The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $435m (44%)
- machinery and industrial equipment, up $278m (15%)
- ADP equipment, up $144m (16%).
Partly offsetting these rises was capital goods n.e.s., down $220m (26%).
INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS
In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $96m (1%) to $11,254m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $157m (1%) to $11,099m.
The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $114m (4%)
- other parts for capital goods, up $112m (8%).
Partly offsetting these rises was fuels and lubricants, down $148m (4%).
NON-MONETARY GOLD
In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $15m (4%) to $415m.
In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $65m (13%) to $453m.
Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| | | | | | Change in: |
| | | Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 |
| | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
|
| Total services debits | -8 263 | -8 455 | -8 264 | -191 | -2 |
| Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b) | -93 | -58 | -62 | 4 | 7 |
| Transport | -1 584 | -1 574 | -1 592 | 18 | 1 |
| | Passenger(c) | -620 | -677 | -659 | -18 | -3 |
| | Freight | -872 | -804 | -842 | 38 | 5 |
| | Other(b) | -77 | -78 | -75 | -3 | -4 |
| | Postal and courier services(d)(e) | -15 | -15 | -15 | - | - |
| Travel | -4 087 | -4 306 | -4 115 | -191 | -4 |
| Other services | -2 499 | -2 517 | -2 496 | -21 | -1 |
| Memorandum item | | | | | |
| Tourism related services debits(f) | -4 707 | -4 983 | -4 774 | -209 | -4 |
|
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
| (a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes. |
| (b) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
| (c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport. |
| (d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport. |
| (e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern. |
| (f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes. |
In trend terms, services debits rose $5m to $8,336m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $191m (2%) to $8,264m.
The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $191m (4%).
In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $209m (4%) to $4,774m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 23% of total goods and services imported.
Selected commodities
Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms |
|
| | Change in: |
| | Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 |
| | % | % | % | % | % | % |
Iron ore |
|
| Lump | | | | | | |
| Quantity | -2 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 18 | -19 |
| Unit value | 1 | 8 | 4 | -1 | -1 | 11 |
| Fines | | | | | | |
| Quantity | 9 | -1 | -3 | -4 | 16 | -14 |
| Unit value | 3 | 4 | 5 | - | -4 | 8 |
Coal |
|
| Hard coking | | | | | | |
| Quantity | -4 | 8 | 3 | -4 | -8 | 9 |
| Unit value | -2 | 1 | 8 | p5 | p-7 | p - |
| Semi-soft | | | | | | |
| Quantity | 17 | -5 | 3 | 17 | -2 | -10 |
| Unit value | -2 | -1 | 2 | -3 | p1 | p-1 |
| Thermal | | | | | | |
| Quantity | -9 | -7 | 12 | -21 | 32 | -8 |
| Unit value | 5 | -2 | 2 | -5 | p-2 | p3 |
Gas |
|
| LNG | | | | | | |
| Quantity | - | -6 | 10 | 2 | 1 | -3 |
| Unit value | 6 | 7 | 1 | - | 1 | 2 |
|
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
| p preliminary figure or series subject to revision |
| (a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series. |
International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the
Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.
Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.
On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between December 2018 and January 2019 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:
Iron ore lump, down $197m (10%), with quantities down 19% and unit values up 11%. Exports to:
- China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $158m (11%), with quantities down 20% and unit values up 12%
- Japan fell $38m (17%), with quantities down 23% and unit values up 9%.
Iron ore fines, down $317m (8%), with quantities down 14% and unit values up 8%. Exports to:
- Japan fell $91m (33%), with quantities down 41% and unit values up 13%
- China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $75m (2%), with quantities down 8% and unit values up 6%
- India fell $46m, with no exports in January 2019
- the Republic of Korea fell $41m (14%), with quantities down 27% and unit values up 17%
- Singapore fell $26m, with no exports in January 2019.
Hard coking coal, up $230m (10%), with quantities up 9%. Exports to:
- India rose $166m (34%), with quantities up 33% and unit values up 1%
- Netherlands rose $75m (72%), with quantities up 78% and unit values down 3%
- Turkey rose $48m, following no exports in December 2018
- China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $89m (12%), with quantities down 12%.
Semi-soft coal, down $113m (11%), with quantities down 10% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:
- the Republic of Korea fell $84m (39%), with quantities down 41% and unit values up 3%
- China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $77m (38%), with quantities down 38% and unit values up 1%
- Japan rose $136m (61%), with quantities up 66% and unit values down 3%.
Thermal coal, down $133m (5%), with quantities down 8% and unit values up 3%. Exports to:
- the Republic of Korea fell $159m (30%), with quantities down 22% and unit values down 10%
- China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $117m (31%), with quantities down 33% and unit values up 4%
- Japan rose $86m (8%), with quantities up 9% and unit values down 1%
- Taiwan rose $46m (22%), with quantities up 19% and unit values up 2%.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG), down $40m (1%), with quantities down 3% and unit values up 2%.
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