ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $847m in January 2015, a decrease of $69m (8%) on the deficit in December 2014.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $980m in January 2015, an increase of $477m (95%) on the deficit in December 2014.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between December 2014 and January 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $136m (1%) to $27,285m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $343m (1%) to $27,529m. Non-rural goods rose $398m (2%) and non-monetary gold rose $29m (2%). Rural goods fell $70m (2%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $10m (23%). Services credits fell $4m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $60m (2%) to $3,463m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $70m (2%) to $3,514m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $73m (10%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $92m (1%) to $17,582m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $398m (2%) to $17,682m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other mineral fuels, up $231m (10%)
• transport equipment, up $155m (35%)
• other manufactures, up $138m (10%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $95m (3%).

Partly offsetting these rises was metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $196m (17%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (2%) to $40m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $10m (23%) to $33m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $6m to $1,201m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $29m (2%) to $1,288m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, service credits fell $9m to $4,999m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $4m to $5,012m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, down $13m
• transport, down $5m (1%).

Partly offsetting these falls was other services, up $13m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits fell $18m (1%) to $3,162m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between December 2014 and January 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $67m to $28,132m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $820m (3%) to $28,509m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $346m (4%), capital goods rose $308m (6%) and consumption goods rose $192m (3%). Non-monetary gold fell $28m (10%). Services debits rose $2m.


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $53m (1%) to $7,123m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $192m (3%) to $7,231m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $102m (9%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., up $68m (3%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $62m (1%) to $5,629m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $308m (6%) to $5,750m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $326m (59%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $51m (1%) to $9,272m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $346m (4%) to $9,420m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• iron and steel, up $115m (40%)
• parts for transport equipment, up $60m (7%)
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $38m (32%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $35m (1%)
• other parts for capital goods, up $32m (3%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $3m (1%) to $282m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $28m (10%) to $266m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, imports of services debits rose $6m to $5,826m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of services debits rose $2m to $5,841m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $23m (1%).

Partly offsetting this rise were:

• other services, down $12m (1%)
• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $8m (31%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of tourism related services debits rose $12m to $2,951m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis (a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Aug 2014	Sep 2014	Oct 2014	Nov 2014	Dec 2014	Jan 2015
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	1	-4	-9	1	19	-12
	Unit value	-2	-4	-1	-2	4	-1
Fines
	Quantity	3	-4	7	-8	9	-9
	Unit value	-2	-5	-5	-5	-1	1
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	13	3	-	7	-13	-
	Unit value	-	-1	7	1	p11	p3
Semi-soft
	Quantity	5	5	-2	-13	34	-19
	Unit value	-1	2	3	1	p8	p2
Thermal
	Quantity	-	-9	1	3	13	-12
	Unit value	-1	2	-2	3	5	-2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Customs and Border Protection and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between December 2014 and January 2015 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump fell $161m (13%), with quantities down 12% and unit values down 1%.
Exports to:

• Japan fell $104m (34%), with quantities down 32% and unit values down 2%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $88m (10%), with quantities down 11% and unit values up 1%.

Iron ore fines fell $268m (7%), with quantities down 9% and unit values up 1%.
Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $137m (5%), with quantities down 8% and unit values up 4%
• Japan fell $131m (28%), with quantities down 21% and unit values down 8%.

Hard coking coal rose $40m (3%), with unit values up 3%.
Exports to India rose $41m (11%), with quantities up 7% and unit values up 4%.

Semi-soft coal fell $123m (17%), with quantities down 19% and unit values up 2%.
Exports to:

• Japan fell $74m (29%), with quantities down 32% and unit values up 4%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) down $53m (36%), with quantities down 40% and unit values up 7%.

Thermal coal fell $219m (14%), with quantities down 12% and unit values down 2%.
Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea, down $66m (21%), with quantities down 20% and unit values down 1%
• Mexico, down $55m (100%), with quantities down 100%
• Japan, down $42m (6%), with quantities down 5% and unit values down 1%
• Taiwan, down $40m (20%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 2%.