ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $4,348m in February 2019, an increase of $395m on the surplus in January 2019.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $4,801m in February 2019, an increase of $450m on the surplus in January 2019.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Dec 2018	Jan 2019	Feb 2019	Feb 2019	Feb 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				3 853	4 351	4 801	450	10
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			37 938	39 756	39 833	77	-
		Total goods		29 943	31 775	31 716	-59	-
			Rural goods(b)	4 051	4 136	4 092	-44	-1
			Non-rural goods(b)	25 080	25 467	25 594	127	-
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	24	10	10	-	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	789	2 162	2 020	-142	-7
		Total services		7 995	7 981	8 117	136	2
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-34 085	-35 406	-35 032	-374	-1
		Total goods		-25 534	-27 007	-26 398	-609	-2
			Consumption goods	-8 263	-8 919	-8 931	12	-
			Capital goods	-5 947	-6 598	-6 443	-155	-2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 807	-11 037	-10 594	-443	-4
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-518	-452	-430	-22	-5
		Total services		-8 551	-8 399	-8 634	235	3
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				3 495	3 953	4 348	395	10
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			38 729	39 129	39 466	337	1
		Total goods		30 718	31 093	31 413	320	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 966	4 004	4 040	36	1
			Non-rural goods(b)	25 183	25 420	25 594	174	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	18	16	13	-3	-19
			Non-monetary gold	1 551	1 653	1 766	113	7
		Total services		8 010	8 036	8 053	17	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-35 234	-35 176	-35 118	-58	-
		Total goods		-26 786	-26 678	-26 577	-101	-
			Consumption goods	-8 718	-8 764	-8 807	43	-
			Capital goods	-6 497	-6 473	-6 426	-47	-1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-11 162	-11 014	-10 890	-124	-1
			Non-monetary gold	-410	-426	-454	28	7
		Total services		-8 448	-8 498	-8 542	44	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between January and February 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $337m (1%) to $39,466m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $77m to $39,833m. Non-rural goods rose $127m. Non-monetary gold fell $142m (7%) and rural goods fell $44m (1%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $10m. Services credits rose $136m (2%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Dec 2018	Jan 2019	Feb 2019	Feb 2019	Feb 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				29 943	31 775	31 716	-59	-
	General merchandise			29 130	29 603	29 686	83	-
		Rural goods		4 051	4 136	4 092	-44	-1
			Meat and meat preparations	1 176	1 237	1 265	28	2
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	727	571	536	-35	-6
			Wool and sheepskins	311	362	340	-22	-6
			Other rural(a)	1 837	1 966	1 951	-15	-1
		Non-rural goods		25 080	25 467	25 594	127	-
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	8 374	8 611	9 569	958	11
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	5 695	5 988	5 228	-760	-13
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	5 262	5 327	5 424	97	2
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	1 242	1 200	1 196	-4	-
			Machinery	946	936	944	8	1
			Transport equipment	759	476	347	-129	-27
			Other manufactures	1 785	1 904	1 920	16	1
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	850	890	820	-70	-8
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	165	135	145	10	7
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			24	10	10	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(e)			789	2 162	2 020	-142	-7
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $36m (1%) to $4,040m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $44m (1%) to $4,092m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $35m (6%)
• wool and sheepskins, down $22m (6%).

Partly offsetting these falls was meat and meat preparations, up $28m (2%).


NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $174m (1%) to $25,594m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $127m to $25,594m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $958m (11%)
• other mineral fuels, up $97m (2%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, down $760m (13%)
• transport equipment, down $129m (27%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $3m (19%) to $13m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $10m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $113m (7%) to $1,766m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $142m (7%) to $2,020m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Dec 2018	Jan 2019	Feb 2019	Feb 2019	Feb 2019
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			7 995	7 981	8 117	136	2
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		7	1	1	-	-
	Transport		605	608	612	4	1
		Passenger(b)	240	238	240	2	1
		Freight(c)	22	22	22	-	-
		Other	236	240	239	-1	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	107	108	110	2	2
	Travel		5 241	5 201	5 316	115	2
	Other services		2 142	2 171	2 188	17	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		5 480	5 439	5 556	117	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $17m to $8,053m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $136m (2%) to $8,117m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $115m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $117m (2%) to $5,556m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 20% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between January and February 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $58m to $35,118m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $374m (1%) to $35,032m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $443m (4%), capital goods fell $155m (2%) and non-monetary gold fell $22m (5%). Consumption goods rose $12m. Services debits rose $235m (3%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Dec 2018	Jan 2019	Feb 2019	Feb 2019	Feb 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-25 534	-27 007	-26 398	-609	-2
	General merchandise			-25 016	-26 555	-25 968	-587	-2
		Consumption goods		-8 263	-8 919	-8 931	12	-
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 313	-1 391	-1 363	-28	-2
			Household electrical items	-507	-546	-522	-24	-4
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 632	-1 945	-2 303	358	18
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 529	-1 512	-1 508	-4	-
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-530	-547	-494	-53	-10
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 753	-2 979	-2 740	-239	-8
		Capital goods		-5 947	-6 598	-6 443	-155	-2
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-2 049	-2 180	-2 299	119	5
			ADP equipment	-892	-1 030	-808	-222	-22
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 054	-1 089	-1 022	-67	-6
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-323	-389	-314	-75	-19
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-960	-1 347	-1 395	48	4
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-669	-563	-605	42	7
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-10 807	-11 037	-10 594	-443	-4
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-166	-168	-174	6	4
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-159	-150	-214	64	43
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 293	-3 212	-2 868	-344	-11
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 128	-1 148	-1 120	-28	-2
			Parts for ADP equipment	-50	-57	-60	3	5
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 469	-1 585	-1 556	-29	-2
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-311	-293	-301	8	3
			Paper and paperboard	-210	-214	-207	-7	-3
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-124	-135	-122	-13	-10
			Iron and steel	-317	-333	-322	-11	-3
			Plastics	-368	-391	-379	-12	-3
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-3 040	-3 143	-3 101	-42	-1
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-33	-76	-38	-38	-50
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-139	-132	-132	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-518	-452	-430	-22	-5
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $43m to $8,807m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $12m to $8,931m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, up $358m (18%).

Partly offsetting this rise were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., down $239m (8%)
• toys, books and leisure goods, down $53m (10%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $47m (1%) to $6,426m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $155m (2%) to $6,443m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• ADP equipment, down $222m (22%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $75m (19%).

Partly offsetting these falls was machinery and industrial equipment, up $119m (5%).


INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $124m (1%) to $10,890m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $443m (4%) to $10,594m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, down $344m (11%).


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $28m (7%) to $454m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $22m (5%) to $430m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Dec 2018	Jan 2019	Feb 2019	Feb 2019	Feb 2019
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-8 551	-8 399	-8 634	235	3
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-58	-61	-68	7	11
	Transport		-1 556	-1 552	-1 579	27	2
		Passenger(c)	-644	-634	-658	24	4
		Freight	-825	-840	-843	3	-
		Other(b)	-78	-72	-72	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-8	-7	-7	-	-
	Travel		-4 365	-4 225	-4 410	185	4
	Other services		-2 572	-2 560	-2 577	17	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-5 009	-4 859	-5 068	209	4
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $44m (1%) to $8,542m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $235m (3%) to $8,634m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $185m (4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $209m (4%) to $5,068m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 25% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in:
		Sep 2018	Oct 2018	Nov 2018	Dec 2018	Jan 2019	Feb 2019
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	1	1	-6	18	-17	1
	Unit value	9	4	-	-2	10	8
Fines
	Quantity	-1	-4	-4	16	-16	6
	Unit value	4	5	-	-3	8	11
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	8	3	-4	-5	6	-29
	Unit value	1	8	5	p -	p-6	p-3
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-5	3	17	-	-9	-18
	Unit value	-1	2	-3	1	p1	p-3
Thermal
	Quantity	-7	12	-21	32	-8	-18
	Unit value	-2	2	-5	-2	3	-3
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	-6	10	2	1	-4	-10
	Unit value	7	1	-	1	3	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between January and February 2019 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $159m (9%), with quantities up 1% and unit values up 8%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $171m (13%), with quantities up 5% and unit values up 7%
• the Republic of Korea fell $41m (37%), with quantities down 36% and unit values down 1%.

Iron ore fines, up $645m (17%), with quantities up 6% and unit values up 11%. Exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $649m (20%), with quantities up 8% and unit values up 11%.

Hard coking coal, down $826m (31%), with quantities down 29% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• India fell $210m (31%), with quantities down 28% and unit values down 4%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $163m (26%), with quantities down 26%
• Netherlands fell $119m (65%), with quantities down 63% and unit values down 5%
• Taiwan fell $91m (49%), with quantities down 49% and unit values up 1%
• Japan fell $86m (24%), with quantities down 24%.

Semi-soft coal, down $197m (20%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• India fell $83m (38%), with quantities down 38%
• Japan fell $81m (22%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 5%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $63m (49%), with quantities down 48% and unit values down 3%.

Thermal coal, down $485m (21%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $368m (31%), with quantities down 30% and unit values down 2%
• the Republic of Korea fell $154m (39%), with quantities down 46% and unit values up 14%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), down $501m (11%), with quantities down 10% and unit values down 1%.