ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $262m in February 2018, an increase of $62m on the surplus in January 2018.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $825m in February 2018, a decrease of $127m on the surplus in January 2018.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Feb 2018	Feb 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-1 445	952	825	-127	-13
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			32 648	34 227	34 229	2	-
		Total goods		25 451	27 048	27 006	-42	-
			Rural goods(b)	3 715	3 336	3 888	552	17
			Non-rural goods(b)	20 294	21 508	21 418	-90	-
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	14	7	7	-	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 428	2 198	1 693	-505	-23
		Total services		7 197	7 179	7 224	45	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-34 093	-33 275	-33 405	130	-
		Total goods		-26 263	-25 579	-25 598	19	-
			Consumption goods	-8 978	-8 403	-8 950	547	7
			Capital goods	-6 212	-6 153	-6 213	60	1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 568	-10 612	-9 955	-657	-6
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-505	-410	-480	70	17
		Total services		-7 830	-7 696	-7 806	110	1
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				177	200	262	62	31
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			32 978	33 440	33 863	423	1
		Total goods		25 756	26 233	26 670	437	2
			Rural goods(b)	3 730	3 663	3 621	-42	-1
			Non-rural goods(b)	20 321	20 799	21 216	417	2
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	12	9	6	-3	-33
			Non-monetary gold	1 692	1 762	1 827	65	4
		Total services		7 223	7 207	7 193	-14	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-32 801	-33 240	-33 601	361	1
		Total goods		-25 180	-25 541	-25 841	300	1
			Consumption goods	-8 632	-8 744	-8 842	98	1
			Capital goods	-6 025	-6 079	-6 142	63	1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 110	-10 288	-10 409	121	1
			Non-monetary gold	-413	-430	-447	17	4
		Total services		-7 621	-7 699	-7 760	61	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between January and February 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $423m (1%) to $33,863m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $2m to $34,229m. Rural goods rose $552m (17%). Non-monetary gold fell $505m (23%) and non-rural goods fell $90m. Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $7m. Services credits rose $45m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Feb 2018	Feb 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				25 451	27 048	27 006	-42	-
	General merchandise			24 009	24 843	25 306	463	2
		Rural goods		3 715	3 336	3 888	552	17
			Meat and meat preparations	1 022	1 035	1 060	25	2
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	629	557	512	-45	-8
			Wool and sheepskins	377	303	379	76	25
			Other rural(a)	1 687	1 441	1 937	496	34
		Non-rural goods		20 294	21 508	21 418	-90	-
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	7 525	7 620	7 820	200	3
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	4 965	5 246	5 304	58	1
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	3 123	3 453	3 543	90	3
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	860	999	977	-22	-2
			Machinery	859	871	815	-56	-6
			Transport equipment	274	475	303	-172	-36
			Other manufactures	1 670	1 767	1 640	-127	-7
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	867	924	874	-50	-5
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	153	152	141	-11	-7
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			14	7	7	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 428	2 198	1 693	-505	-23
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $42m (1%) to $3,621m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $552m (17%) to $3,888m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, up $496m (34%)
• wool and sheepskins, up $76m (25%).

Partly offsetting these rises was cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $45m (8%).


NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $417m (2%) to $21,216m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $90m to $21,418m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport equipment, down $172m (36%)
• other manufactures, down $127m (7%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $200m (3%)
• other mineral fuels, up $90m (3%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $3m (33%) to $6m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $7m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $65m (4%) to $1,827m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $505m (23%) to $1,693m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Feb 2018	Feb 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			7 197	7 179	7 224	45	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		5	5	5	-	-
	Transport		632	648	654	6	1
		Passenger(b)	237	244	246	2	1
		Freight(c)	22	25	25	-	-
		Other	232	233	234	1	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	140	146	150	4	3
	Travel		4 626	4 573	4 597	24	1
	Other services		1 934	1 953	1 967	14	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		4 863	4 817	4 844	27	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits fell $14m to $7,193m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $45m (1%) to $7,224m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $24m (1%)
• other services, up $14m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $27m (1%) to $4,844m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 21% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between January and February 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $361m (1%) to $33,601m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $130m to $33,405m. Consumption goods rose $547m (7%), non-monetary gold rose $70m (17%) and capital goods rose $60m (1%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $657m (6%). Services debits rose $110m (1%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Feb 2018	Feb 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-26 263	-25 579	-25 598	19	-
	General merchandise			-25 758	-25 169	-25 118	-51	-
		Consumption goods		-8 978	-8 403	-8 950	547	7
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 274	-1 232	-1 277	45	4
			Household electrical items	-550	-551	-560	9	2
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-2 150	-1 948	-2 334	386	20
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 613	-1 384	-1 467	83	6
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-555	-576	-565	-11	-2
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 836	-2 713	-2 747	34	1
		Capital goods		-6 212	-6 153	-6 213	60	1
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 992	-1 932	-2 221	289	15
			ADP equipment	-833	-834	-886	52	6
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 318	-1 033	-924	-109	-11
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-524	-696	-559	-137	-20
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-869	-964	-1 081	117	12
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-676	-695	-543	-152	-22
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-10 568	-10 612	-9 955	-657	-6
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-160	-138	-155	17	12
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-232	-287	-195	-92	-32
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 108	-3 138	-2 537	-601	-19
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 139	-1 063	-1 003	-60	-6
			Parts for ADP equipment	-61	-65	-61	-4	-6
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 484	-1 477	-1 518	41	3
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-304	-289	-330	41	14
			Paper and paperboard	-206	-197	-200	3	2
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-129	-123	-128	5	4
			Iron and steel	-330	-311	-370	59	19
			Plastics	-371	-371	-373	2	1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 900	-2 925	-2 946	21	1
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-38	-129	-41	-88	-68
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-107	-99	-99	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-505	-410	-480	70	17
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $98m (1%) to $8,842m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $547m (7%) to $8,950m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, up $386m (20%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $83m (6%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $45m (4%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $63m (1%) to $6,142m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $60m (1%) to $6,213m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, up $289m (15%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $117m (12%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• capital goods n.e.s., down $152m (22%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $137m (20%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $121m (1%) to $10,409m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $657m (6%) to $9,955m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, down $601m (19%).


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $17m (4%) to $447m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $70m (17%) to $480m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Feb 2018	Feb 2018
			$m	$m	$m	%	%
Total services debits			-7 830	-7 696	-7 806	110	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-46	-34	-46	12	35
	Transport		-1 514	-1 493	-1 523	30	2
		Passenger(c)	-611	-616	-608	-8	-1
		Freight	-826	-801	-838	37	5
		Other(b)	-68	-66	-66	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-9	-11	-11	-	-
	Travel		-3 983	-3 925	-3 982	57	1
	Other services		-2 287	-2 244	-2 255	11	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 593	-4 541	-4 590	49	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $61m (1%) to $7,760m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $110m (1%) to $7,806m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $57m (1%)
• transport, up $30m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $49m (1%) to $4,590m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 23% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		Sep 2017	Oct 2017	Nov 2017	Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Feb 2018
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	10	-6	1	12	-17	1
	Unit value	7	-10	-6	1	-1	8
Fines
	Quantity	1	-2	-3	15	-17	-3
	Unit value	-7	-13	4	7	6	3
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	2	-19	3	14	2	-21
	Unit value	14	4	p-3	1	p9	p-17
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-16	2	-13	33	-14	-11
	Unit value	4	2	-	6	p-3	p-1
Thermal
	Quantity	4	-2	-4	13	-9	-8
	Unit value	2	5	4	-1	-3	p4
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	-20	18	5	2	8	-6
	Unit value	-2	-1	4	5	2	4
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between January and February 2018 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $113m (9%), with quantities up 1% and unit values up 8%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $142m (14%), with quantities up 7% and unit values up 7%
• the Republic of Korea fell $18m (29%), with quantities down 38% and unit values up 15%.

Iron ore fines, down $12m, with quantities down 3% and unit values up 3%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $35m (1%), with quantities down 4% and unit values up 3%
• Taiwan fell $20m (43%), with quantities down 43% and unit values up 1%
• the Republic of Korea rose $26m (16%), with quantities up 6% and unit values up 10%
• Vietnam rose $22m, with unit values up 28%.

Hard coking coal, down $901m (35%), with quantities down 21% and unit values down 17%. Exports to:

• India fell $229m (34%), with quantities down 16% and unit values down 21%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $196m (46%), with quantities down 30% and unit values down 22%
• Japan fell $158m (33%), with quantities down 28% and unit values down 7%
• the Netherlands fell $124m (56%), with quantities down 33% and unit values down 34%
• Brazil fell $92m (85%), with quantities down 80% and unit values down 24%.

Semi-soft coal, down $102m (12%), with quantities down 11% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• India fell $92m (39%), with quantities down 42% and unit values up 5%
• Japan fell $53m (19%), with quantities down 16% and unit values down 3%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $15m (17%), with quantities down 24% and unit values up 10%.

Thermal coal, down $88m (5%), with quantities down 8% and unit values up 4%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea fell $74m (27%), with quantities down 24% and unit values down 5%
• Japan fell $55m (6%), with quantities down 10% and unit values up 3%
• Taiwan fell $46m (27%), with quantities down 34% and unit values up 10%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwain) rose $112m (34%), with quantities up 22% and unit values up 9%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), down $47m (2%), with quantities down 6% and unit values up 4%.