ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in February 2008 was a deficit of $2,723m, an increase of $141m (5%) on the revised deficit in January 2008.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in February 2008 was a deficit of $3,289m, an increase of $754m (30%) on the revised deficit in January 2008.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $91m between January and February to $18,663m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $790m (4%) to $18,260m. Non-rural goods fell $765m (7%) and other goods fell $8m (1%) while rural goods rose $23m (1%). Services credits fell $40m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

The trend estimate of rural goods exports rose $44m (2%) to $2,150m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $23m (1%) to $2,157m.

The seasonally adjusted series for cereal grains and cereal preparations was up $70m (18%) for the month.

Partly offsetting this rise were:

• meat and meat preparations, down $21m (4%)
• wool and sheepskins, down $20m (8%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $337m (18%) to $2,169m.

Non-rural goods

The trend estimate of non-rural goods exports rose $10m to $11,142m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $765m (7%) to $10,721m.

Components falling in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• metal ores and minerals, down $624m (18%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $281m (16%)
• other manufactures, down $194m (13%).

Partly offsetting these were:

• metals (excluding non-monetary gold), up $234m (26%)
• other non-rural (including sugar and beverages), up $66m (7%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $108m (1%) to $10,092m.

The main movements in the original series contributing to seasonally adjusted series were:

• metal ores and minerals, down $481m (15%), in contrast to an average January to February rise of 11% over the previous three years, with:
  • non-agglomerated iron ore, down $458m (27%) with volumes down 25% and prices down 2%
  • alumina, down $84m (19%) with volumes down 18% and prices down 1%
  • uranium, down $43m (55%) with volumes down 7% and prices down 52%.
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $384m (21%), compared to an average January to February fall of 14% over the previous three years, with:
  • metallurgical coal, down $282m (26%) with volumes down 29% and prices up 3%
  • non-metallurgical coal, down $122m (17%) with volumes down 19% and prices up 2%.

Other goods

The trend estimate of other goods exports rose $48m (4%) to $1,303m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods fell $8m (1%) to $1,353m with non-monetary gold, down $18m (2%).

In original terms, exports of other goods fell $7m (1%) to $1,350m.


Exports of Services


In trend terms, services credits fell $12m to $4,068m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell by $40m (1%) to $4,029m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel services, down $39m (2%)
• transportation services, down $8m (1%).

Partly offsetting these effects was the other services component, up $7m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $47m (2%) to $2,501m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the series that comprise services credits.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $231m (1%) between January and February to $21,386m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $37m to $21,548m. Consumption goods fell $93m (2%), intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $72m (1%) and other goods fell $53m (6%) while capital goods rose $269m (7%). Services debits fell $89m (2%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $53m (1%) to $5,121m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $93m (2%) to $5,082m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, down $116m (7%)
• toys, books and leisure, down $32m (8%).

Partly offsetting these were:

• textile, clothing and footwear, up $17m (3%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., up $14m (1%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $26m (1%) to $4,831m.

CAPITAL GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $43m (1%) to $3,865m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $269m (7%) to $4,002m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was civil aircraft, up $404m.

Partly offsetting this were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, down $108m (7%)
• ADP equipment, down $42m (7%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $155m (4%) to $3,639m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $109m (1%) to $7,655m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $72m (1%) to $7,708m.

The main components falling in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $108m (6%)
• fuels and lubricants, down $78m (3%)
• iron and steel, down $39m (13%)
• organic and inorganic chemicals, down $35m (8%).

Partly offsetting these were:

• other parts for capital goods, up $96m (10%)
• other merchandise goods, up $73m (53%).

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $228m (3%) to $7,599m.

OTHER GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of other goods rose $29m (4%) to $783m.

In both original and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits fell $53m (6%) to $846m driven by non-monetary gold, down $74m (10%).


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits fell $1m to $3,963m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $89m (2%) to $3,910m.

Components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transportation services, down $54m (4%)
• travel services, down $42m (3%).

Partly offsetting this effect was other services, up $8m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $78m (4%) to $1,983m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the series that comprise services debits.