ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $184m in December 2013, a turnaround of $250m on the deficit in November 2013.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $468m in December 2013, an increase of $385m (464%) on the surplus in November 2013.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to December 2013 was a surplus of $134m, a turnaround of $3,078m on the deficit of $2,944m for the three months to September 2013. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary December quarter 2013 surplus was $82m, a turnaround of $2,760m on the revised September quarter 2013 deficit of $2,678m.

Revised quarterly estimates will be included in Balance of Payments - Goods and Services, Preliminary Quarterly Estimates (cat. no. 5302.0.55.004) and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between November and December 2013, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $290m (1%) to $28,006m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,023m (4%) to $28,511m. Non-rural goods rose $897m (5%), rural goods rose $521m (17%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (2%). Non-monetary gold fell $373m (28%). Services credits fell $23m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $48m (1%) to $3,261m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $521m (17%) to $3,585m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $436m (78%). In original terms on an international merchandise trade basis, exports of wheat and meslin (AHECC 100199) increased $430m (225%) in December 2013
• meat and meat preparations, up $47m (6%)
• other rural, up $44m (3%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $235m (1%) to $18,819m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $897m (5%) to $19,273m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other mineral fuels, up $263m (12%)
• metal ores and minerals, up $208m (2%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $148m (4%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $142m (17%)
• transport equipment, up $109m (29%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $3m (7%) to $45m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (2%) to $45m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $6m to $1,219m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $373m (28%) to $961m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $10m to $4,661m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $23m to $4,646m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was other services, down $57m (4%).

Partly offsetting this fall was travel, up $37m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $34m (1%) to $2,965m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between November and December 2013, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $41m to $27,822m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $638m (2%) to $28,042m. Capital goods rose $238m (4%), consumption goods rose $186m (3%), intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $123m (1%) and non-monetary gold rose $32m (10%). Services debits rose $59m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $2m to $6,822m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $186m (3%) to $6,887m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up $98m (5%)
• non-industrial transport equipment, up $80m (5%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $3m to $5,485m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $238m (4%) to $5,642m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $337m (98%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $94m (16%).

Partly offsetting these rises was the machinery and industrial equipment component, down $179m (10%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $65m (1%) to $9,660m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $123m (1%) to $9,615m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $139m (4%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $14m (4%) to $341m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $32m (10%) to $351m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits fell $4m to $5,515m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $59m (1%) to $5,547m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other services, up $30m (2%)
• travel, up $29m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $43m (2%) to $2,872m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis (a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Jul 2013	Aug 2013	Sep 2013	Oct 2013	Nov 2013	Dec 2013
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	4	-	5	9	-6	11
	Unit value	4	6	-1	-5	2	6
Fines
	Quantity	2	14	-1	-	-3	8
	Unit value	4	7	-	-4	2	8
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-16	4	11	8	-4	-5
	Unit value	-4	-1	-3	-	6	2
Semi-soft
	Quantity	5	23	-2	11	-19	11
	Unit value	-2	-4	-5	-1	2	5
Thermal
	Quantity	1	-11	-5	11	-12	31
	Unit value	1	1	-3	-4	-	5
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between November and December 2013 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump rose $288m (18%), with quantities up 11% and unit values up 6%.
Exports to:

• China rose $272m (25%), with quantities up 17% and unit values up 7%.

Iron ore fines rose $766m (16%), with quantities up 8% and unit values up 8%.
Exports to:

• China rose $713m (19%), with quantities up 10% and unit values up 8%.

Hard coking coal fell $40m (3%), with quantities down 5% and unit values up 2%.
Exports to:

• India fell $73m (19%), with quantities down 23% and unit values up 5%
• the Republic of Korea fell $44m (35%), with quantities down 35% and unit values down 1%.

Partly offsetting these falls were exports to:

• China up $76m (20%), with quantities up 18% and unit values up 2%.

Semi-soft coal rose $101m (17%), with quantities up 11% and unit values up 5%.
Exports to:

• Japan rose $89m (56%), with quantities up 48% and unit values up 5%.

Thermal coal rose $463m (37%), with quantities up 31% and unit values up 5%.
Exports to:

• Japan rose $150m (23%), with quantities up 19% and unit values up 4%
• Taiwan rose $129m (160%), with quantities up 149% and unit values up 4%
• the Republic of Korea rose $111m (58%), with quantities up 50% and unit values up 6%
• China rose $66m (25%), with quantities up 20% and unit values up 4%.