5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Dec 2011 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/02/2012   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,602m in December 2011, a fall of $83m on the surplus in November 2011.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,709m in December 2011, a rise of $366m on the surplus in November 2011.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to December 2011 was a surplus of $4,524m, a decrease of $1,630m (26%) on the surplus of $6,154m for the three months to September 2011. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the December quarter 2011 surplus was $3,960m, a decrease of $2,682m (40%) on the revised September quarter 2011 surplus of $6,642m. The main goods components contributing to this quarter-on-quarter result were:

  • Goods credits
      • coal, coke and briquettes, up $422m (3%). In original terms on a recorded trade basis coal, not agglomerated, rose $543m (4%) driven by volumes.
      • other mineral fuels, up $422m (7%). In original terms on a recorded trade basis natural gas, rose $149m (5%).
  • Goods debits
      • fuels and lubricants, up $921m (10%). In original terms on a recorded trade basis other petroleum products, rose $428m (14%)
      • civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $723m (54%)
      • telecommunications equipment, up $384m (22%).


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between November 2011 and December 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $103m to $27,596m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $621m (2%) to $27,792m. Non-monetary gold rose $457m (31%), non-rural goods rose $174m (1%) and rural goods rose $12m. Services credits fell $23m (1%).


Exports of goods
GOODS CREDITS
Graph: This graph shows the Trend and Seasonally adjusted estimate for Goods Credits


RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $23m (1%) to $3,075m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $12m to $3,059m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was wool and sheepskins, up $20m (8%).

Offsetting this rise was the cereal grains and cereal preparations component, down $31m (3%).


NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $27m to $18,856m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $174m (1%) to $18,809m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was coal, coke and briquettes, up $369m (8%).

Partly offsetting this rise were:
  • metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $140m (13%)
  • metal ores and minerals, down $100m (1%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section below.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (17%) to -$7m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at -$6m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $119m (8%) to $1,633m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $457m (31%) to $1,926m, driven by volumes.


Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: This graph shows the Trend and Seasonally adjusted estimate for Services Credits


In trend terms, services credits fell $11m to $4,039m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $23m (1%) to $4,004m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $18m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $22m (1%) to $2,551m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between November 2011 and December 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $186m (1%) to $25,994m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $253m (1%) to $26,082m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $346m (4%) and consumption goods rose $151m (3%). Non-monetary gold fell $185m (27%) and capital goods fell $106m (2%). Services debits rose $47m (1%).

Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes rose 1.9% and the implicit price deflator rose 3.2% during the December quarter 2011. In original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index rose 2.4% and the implicit price deflator rose 2.3%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the December quarter 2011 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods
GOODS DEBITS
Graph: This graph shows the Trend and Seasonally adjusted estimate for Goods Debits



CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $25m to $5,483m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $151m (3%) to $5,560m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, up $159m (13%).


CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $94m (2%) to $5,588m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $106m (2%) to $5,534m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $124m (13%) after rising $576m between October and November 2011.


INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $63m (1%) to $9,189m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $346m (4%) to $9,416m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $666m (22%), after falling $137m (4%) between October and November 2011.

Partly offsetting this rise were:
  • processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $225m (10%), after rising $195m (10%) between October and November 2011
  • organic and inorganic chemicals, down $89m (21%).


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $4m (1%) to $679m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold fell $185m (27%) to $498m.


Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: This graph shows the Trend and Seasonally adjusted estimate for Services Debits


In trend terms, services debits rose $8m to $5,054m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $47m (1%) to $5,074m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
  • travel, up $34m (2%)
  • transport, up $18m (1%), with freight up $17m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $39m (1%) to $2,792m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Unit value and volume analysis: Recorded Trade Basis(a)

Change in
Jul 2011
Aug 2011
Sep 2011
Oct 2011
Nov 2011
Dec 2011
%
%
%
%
%
%

Iron ore

Lump
Volumes
-8
19
-4
-
-7
24
Unit value
-5
3
3
-3
-16
1
Fines
Volumes
9
6
-2
4
-9
15
Unit value
-4
2
4
-2
-16
-5

Coal

Hard coking
Volumes
-7
22
-7
-2
-3
13
Unit value
-1
-
-
-3
-
-
Semi-soft
Volumes
-29
23
12
-7
9
3
Unit value
-2
-1
-4
4
-3
-3
Thermal
Volumes
-2
3
-6
5
-7
25
Unit value
1
4
-
5
1
-1

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Data in this table are on a revised merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.


On a recorded trade basis (noting the footnote in the above table), between November and December 2011, large value movements were recorded for the following selected commodities:
  • Iron ore lump rose $308m (24%) with volumes up 24% and prices up 1%. Exports to China rose $236m (32%), with volumes up 31% and prices up 1%
  • Iron ore fines rose $342m (10%) with volumes up 15% and prices down 5%. Exports to China rose $490m (20%), with volumes up 24% and prices down 3%. Partly offsetting this rise were exports to Republic of Korea, down $121m (27%), with volumes down 22% and prices down 6%
  • Hard coking coal rose $254m (13%) driven by volumes. Exports to Japan rose $213m (51%), with volumes up 45% and prices up 3% and exports to China rose $107m (59%), with volumes up 57% and prices up 1%
  • Semi-soft coal rose $2m with volumes up 3% and prices down 3%. Exports to China rose $151m, driven by volumes. Exports to India were down $55m (56%), United Kingdom, down $27m and Republic of Korea, down $25m (15%)
  • Thermal coal rose $331m (23%) with volumes up 25% and prices down 1%. Exports to Japan rose $186m (30%), with volumes up 31% and prices down 1% and exports to China rose $84m (42%), with volumes up 46% and prices down 2%.