5220.0 - Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, 2015-16 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 18/11/2016   
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ANALYSIS OF RESULTS


GROWTH IN GSP VOLUME MEASURES

The volume measure of Gross state product (GSP), which is the headline measure of state economic activity, increased in all states in 2015-16. New South Wales (NSW) experienced the strongest growth (3.5%), while the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) (3.4%) and Victoria (VIC) (3.3%) also exceeded the national Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 2.8%.

GSP, Chain Volume measures

Annual growth
Average annual compound growth rate (2006-07 to 2015-16)

2015-16
New South Wales
3.5
2.2
Victoria
3.3
2.2
Queensland
2.0
2.9
South Australia
1.9
2.1
Western Australia
1.9
5.0
Tasmania
1.3
1.1
Northern Territory
2.7
3.9
Australian Capital Territory
3.4
2.6
Australia(a)
2.8
2.8

(a) Gross domestic product.


GSP PER CAPITA

Different rates of population growth explain some of the differences between states in GSP growth and for analytical purposes it is useful to look at movements in GSP per capita. For 2015-16, the Northern Territory (NT) recorded the highest GSP per capita growth (2.3%) followed by New South Wales (NSW) and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) (both 2.0%). Queensland (QLD) and Tasmania (TAS) recorded the weakest GSP per capita growth in 2015-16 at 0.7%. GSP per capita has grown in both New South Wales (NSW) and Western Australia (WA) for seven consecutive years.


GSP PER CAPITA
Graph: GSP PER CAPITA


REAL GROSS STATE INCOME

While GSP measures domestic production, the real purchasing power of income generated by that production is affected by changes in the prices of international and interstate imports and exports. Real gross state income (RGSI) adjusts GSP for these changes in a state's Terms of trade (for details on the calculation method see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 26 - 28).

The following graph shows annual percentage changes in RGSI per capita in 2015-16. The Australian Capital Territory (2.0%), New South Wales (1.4%), Victoria (0.1%) and Tasmania (0.1%) all reported positive RGSI per capita in 2015-16. The highest fall in RGSI per capita was reported by Western Australia (-6.4%) while Queensland (-1.1%), the Northern Territory (-0.7%) and South Australia (-0.6%) were also negative.


RGSI PER CAPITA: Chain volume measures
Graph: RGSI PER CAPITA: Chain volume measures



INDUSTRY GROSS VALUE ADDED (GVA)

Growth in New South Wales and Victoria was driven by Construction (up 10.8% in NSW and 9.9% in VIC) and Finance and insurance services (up 4.8% in NSW and 5.5% in VIC). Offsetting the growth in New South Wales and Victoria was Manufacturing (-3.1% in NSW and -2.7% in Victoria) and Agriculture, forestry and fishing (-6.9% in NSW and -8.4% in Victoria). Growth in ACT was driven by Public administration and safety (up 5.6%).

The low growth in Tasmania was driven by falls in Electricity, gas, water and waste services (-8.2%) and Agriculture, forestry and fishing (-4.0%) while Retail trade (5.6%) and Construction (5.0%) contributed to growth.


INDUSTRY GVA CONTRIBUTION TO GROSS STATE PRODUCT GROWTH

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
Aust.(a)
% pts
% pts
% pts
% pts
% pts
% pts
% pts
% pts
% pts

2015-16
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
-0.1
-0.2
-
-0.2
-0.1
-0.4
-0.1
-
-0.1
Mining
-
-
0.6
0.2
1.9
-
0.4
-
0.4
Manufacturing
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-
-0.2
Electricity, gas, water and waste services
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.4
-
-0.1
0.1
Construction
0.6
0.6
-0.4
0.3
-0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
Wholesale trade
0.3
0.2
-
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-
0.1
0.1
Retail trade
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
-
0.1
0.1
Accommodation and food services
0.1
-
-
-
-
0.1
-
-
-
Transport, postal and warehousing
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.4
0.2
-
Information media and telecommunications
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
Financial and insurance services
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
Rental, hiring and real estate services
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.3
Professional, scientific and technical services
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-
-0.1
-
0.1
0.1
-
Administrative and support services
-0.1
-
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-
-0.1
0.1
-
Public administration and safety
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.7
1.7
0.3
Education and training
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
-
0.2
0.1
Health care and social assistance
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
Arts and recreation services
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Other services
-
-
-
-
-
0.1
-
0.1
-
Ownership of dwellings
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
Taxes less subsidies on products
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Statistical discrepancy (P)
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.3
0.2
Gross state product
3.5
3.3
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.3
2.7
3.4
2.8

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Gross domestic product.

At a national level, the main industries contributing to the 2015-16 GVA growth of 2.8% were Mining (6.2%), Financial and insurance services (4.6%), Public administration and safety (6.5%) and Health care and social assistance (3.9%). Agriculture, forestry and fishing (-5.0%), Manufacturing (-2.7%) and Administrative and support services (-1.3%) were the only industries detracting from growth.

From a state perspective, there are differing industry impacts in GVA growth. In 2015-16, the largest contributor(s) to results in each state were:
  • NSW - Financial and insurance services and Construction (0.6% pts each);
  • VIC - Financial and insurance services and Construction (0.6% pts each);
  • QLD - Mining (0.6% pts);
  • SA - Public administration and safety (0.4% pts);
  • WA - Mining (1.9% pts);
  • TAS - Construction and Retail trade (0.3% pts each);
  • NT - Public administration and safety (0.7% pts); and
  • ACT - Public administration and safety (1.7% pts).


STATE FINAL DEMAND (SFD)

State Final Demand is a measure of domestic demand in an economy. It measures the total volume of goods sold for consumption or investments within that state, but excludes export sales.

Volume SFD in 2015-16 recorded growth for five out of eight states. The strongest growth was in New South Wales (3.9%), followed by Victoria (3.8%), the Australian Capital Territory (2.9%) and Tasmania (2.2%). Growth for NSW, VIC and TAS was driven by strong Household final consumption expenditure while growth for the ACT was driven by strong Government final consumption expenditure.

The Northern Territory (-12.5%), Western Australia (-4.0%) and Queensland (-1.3%) recorded negative SFD growth. The falls in all three states were driven by a fall in Private gross fixed capital formation due, in part, to a wind down of construction activity related to the mining industry.

For 2015-16, South Australia had moderate growth in SFD (1.1%) driven by an increase in Household final consumption expenditure.

NSW and VIC contributed the most to Australia's Domestic final demand growth with NSW adding 1.2 percentage points and VIC adding 0.9 percentage points.

STATE FINAL DEMAND, Chain volume measures

2015-16
2014-15
2015-16
SFD Growth
Contribution to DFD
%
% pts

New South Wales
496 575
515 804
3.9
1.2
Victoria
378 042
392 441
3.8
0.9
Queensland
321 329
317 312
-1.3
-0.2
South Australia
103 428
104 558
1.1
0.1
Western Australia
218 421
209 777
-4.0
-0.5
Tasmania
28 918
29 545
2.2
-
Northern Territory
32 119
28 116
-12.5
-0.2
Australian Capital Territory
60 208
61 926
2.9
0.1
Australia(a)
1 639 041
1 659 479
1.2
1.2

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Domestic final demand.


GOVERNMENT FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE (GFCE)

GFCE in volume terms rose for all states in 2015-16. QLD recorded the strongest growth with an increase of 4.9% while NSW (4.7%) and TAS (3.9%) also experienced strong growth.


HOUSEHOLD FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE (HFCE)

HFCE in volume terms rose in all states in 2015-16. The strongest growth was in NT (5.2%), followed by ACT (3.5%). Both NSW and VIC recorded growth of 3.2%.


PRIVATE GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION

Private gross fixed capital formation in volume terms rose in three states in 2015-16. Victoria had the strongest growth (5.2%) due to strength in dwelling construction. NSW and ACT also showed positive growth with 4.5% and 4.1% respectively. The largest negative growth was recorded in NT (-32.6%) and WA (-14.1%).


PUBLIC GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION

NSW, VIC and SA all recorded rises in Public gross fixed capital formation with 8.4%, 10.1%, and 3.0% respectively.


TOTAL FACTOR INCOME (TFI)

Total factor incomes grew in seven of the eight states with NSW (4.8%) and ACT (4.1%) recording the strongest growth. WA (-4.6%) recorded a fall in Total factor income.

Australia's Compensation of employees (COE) rose by 3.1% with Victoria (5.9%) and New South Wales (4.8%) recording the strongest growth. Western Australia was the only state to record negative growth (-2.5%).

Gross operating surplus (GOS) plus gross mixed income (GMI) rose 1.6% for Australia. All states except WA and NT experienced growth in GOS plus GMI with the strongest growth in NSW (5.0%), ACT (5.0%) and QLD (4.4%). WA and NT experienced negative growth with falls of 6.3% and 0.8% respectively.


GROSS HOUSEHOLD DISPOSABLE INCOME PER CAPITA

While GSP per capita measures the level of economic production, some of the income generated from production may be transferred to other states or overseas (and conversely income may be received from other states or overseas), such as through out-of-state ownership of businesses or government transfers. A measure that takes these flows into account is gross household disposable income per capita.

The highest Gross household disposable income per capita in 2015-16 was in ACT and the lowest was in TAS. Differences between the states reflect differences in the impact of a range of factors including the average level of compensation of employees received per employee, the proportion of the population in employment, the age distribution of the population and differences in the level of dwelling rent (including that imputed to owner occupiers). For example, a significant reason for the high level of gross household disposable income per capita in the ACT compared with other states is that the labour force participation rate is higher than many other states of Australia. More detail on household income by state can be found in the Household Income Account and Per Capita tables.