3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2017 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 15/08/2017   
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MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during June 2017 (733,100 movements) increased 0.3% when compared with May 2017 (730,600 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 6.3% higher than in June 2016.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Short-Term Visitor Arrivals, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during June 2017. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for June 2016 and June 2017 were compared, the highest percentage increases were recorded for the United States of America (13.7%), followed by India (12.0%) and China (10.9%). New Zealand was the only country to record a percentage decrease (-1.5%).



Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - June 2017
Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
May '17 to Jun '17
Jun '16 to Jun '17
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change
New Zealand
110.9
110.9
108.2
-0.4
-1.5
China
111.7
114.3
75.4
1.3
10.9
United States of America
67.7
66.5
62.1
1.2
13.7
Singapore
38.9
37.4
48.8
0.8
2.1
Malaysia
33.7
32.1
35.1
0.3
2.7
Indonesia
14.1
11.9
30.8
-2.9
0.8
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
60.9
60.6
28.4
-0.7
2.7
India
24.3
24.5
24.2
1.2
12.0
Japan
35.9
36.3
21.7
-0.2
4.1
Korea, South
24.6
24.5
17.9
0.5
3.0
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The July 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than June 2017.
      2 The July 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than June 2017.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STVA Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during June 2017 (850,700 movements) increased 0.4% when compared with May 2017 (847,400 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 3.1% higher than in June 2016.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Short-Term Resident Departures, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in June 2017. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for June 2016 and June 2017 were compared, the highest percentage increases were recorded for China (14.5%), followed by New Zealand (8.3%), and Greece (8.0%).The highest percentage decreases were recorded for Indonesia (-11.6%), followed by Fiji (-3.9%), and Italy (-0.1%).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - June 2017
Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
May '17 to Jun '17
Jun '16 to Jun '17
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change
United States of America
90.6
88.3
105.9
0.8
3.1
Indonesia
95.7
93.4
102.0
-0.2
-11.6
New Zealand
116.9
116.0
96.2
0.5
8.3
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
50.3
50.5
85.8
-0.6
5.0
Thailand
47.2
46.8
50.2
1.4
4.1
China
42.2
39.9
37.4
1.3
14.5
Italy
16.2
16.9
37.1
-1.5
-0.1
Singapore
32.8
33.4
32.3
-0.8
2.7
Fiji
26.8
26.6
30.2
-0.3
-3.9
Greece
7.2
8.2
27.6
1.4
8.0
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The July 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than June 2017.
      2 The July 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than June 2017.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STRD Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.