3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Sep 2016 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 10/11/2016   
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MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during September 2016 (702,500 movements) increased 0.4% when compared with August 2016 (699,800 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 11.3% higher than in September 2015.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Short-Term Visitor Arrivals, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during September 2016. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for September 2015 and September 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for South Korea (29.2%), followed by United States of America (22.0%), and India (18.6%).


Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - September 2016
Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Aug '16 to Sep '16
Sep '15 to Sep '16
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change
New Zealand
115.6
119.5
134.7
0.6
5.2
China
99.9
99.8
81.9
-0.9
7.8
United States of America
62.8
62.4
46.9
1.3
22.0
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
59.4
58.7
43.9
-0.0
3.5
Malaysia
34.6
35.5
40.7
1.8
20.3
Singapore
38.7
40.4
39.4
-0.0
12.4
Japan
34.2
34.7
33.9
0.0
18.3
Korea, South
24.6
25.4
22.2
1.5
29.2
India
22.7
22.8
19.5
1.2
18.6
Germany
16.4
16.5
15.6
0.1
2.9
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The October 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than September 2016.
      2 The October 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than September 2016.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STVA Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during September 2016 (826,700 movements) decreased 0.1% when compared with August 2016 (827,300 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 4.1% higher than in September 2015.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Short-Term Resident Departures, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in September 2016. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for September 2015 and September 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Indonesia (11.2%), followed by Japan (9.4%), and Italy (7.1%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for UK, CIs & IOM (-8.4%).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - September 2016
Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Aug '16 to Sep '16
Sep '15 to Sep '16
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change
United States of America
87.4
85.8
117.0
-0.3
1.9
New Zealand
111.7
112.3
116.8
1.0
5.0
Indonesia
102.7
96.9
114.3
-2.1
11.2
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
47.4
47.3
61.3
-0.1
-8.4
China
36.2
36.1
49.0
-0.8
1.8
Thailand
43.2
40.7
44.6
-2.3
-7.8
Singapore
32.6
32.8
38.5
0.5
5.5
Fiji
28.6
29.9
37.4
0.8
-2.1
Japan
29.8
30.4
35.0
-0.3
9.4
Italy
16.7
16.9
34.6
1.4
7.1
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The October 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than September 2016.
      2 The October 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than September 2016.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STRD Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.