MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during September 2010 (502,900 movements) increased 1.2% when compared with August 2010 (496,700 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 7.7% higher than in September 2009.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during September 2010. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for September 2010 and September 2009 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by China (42.9%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by the UK, CI & IOM (7.1%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - September 2010
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Aug 10 to Sep 10	Sep 09 to Sep 10
Source countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	98.9	99.5	117.1	1.4	6.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	52.0	51.8	38.9	-0.3	-7.1
Japan	36.9	36.6	34.8	2.4	30.4
United States of America	39.6	40.5	32.3	0.8	-6.2
China	42.5	40.9	29.0	2.7	42.9
Malaysia	22.0	25.2	25.6	6.0	27.7
Singapore	26.6	27.0	23.8	1.8	12.4
Indonesia	10.7	11.3	18.4	1.7	13.0
Korea(c)	18.0	20.1	16.4	1.0	22.2
Germany	13.3	13.4	13.0	0.3	-2.1
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:

1 The October 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than September 2010.
2 The October 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than September 2010.

The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during September 2010 (606,700 movements) increased 0.4% when compared with August 2010 (604,100 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 12.6% higher than in September 2009.

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during September 2010. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for September 2009 and September 2010 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by China (31.9%), followed by Indonesia (24.0%) and the United States of America (23.6%). None of the top ten destination countries recorded a percentage decrease over the year ended September 2010.

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - September 2010
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Aug 10 to Sep 10	Sep 09 to Sep 10
Destination countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	90.7	89.3	92.3	-0.2	2.9
United States of America	59.4	57.7	77.0	0.3	23.6
Indonesia	61.1	60.6	70.2	0.1	24.0
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	40.0	39.8	53.4	0.2	9.1
China	31.4	31.3	43.8	2.7	31.9
Thailand	35.2	37.2	42.7	-0.2	4.7
Fiji	27.1	27.1	32.4	0.3	18.6
Malaysia	21.9	23.0	24.8	2.3	12.2
Italy	10.8	10.7	22.4	-0.6	20.0
Singapore	21.6	21.0	22.3	-0.2	9.5
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:

1 The October 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than September 2010.
2 The October 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than September 2010.

The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia 2008-09 (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 10,830 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during September 2010, a decrease of 13.7% compared with September 2009 (12,550 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (14.9%), followed by people born in China (10.8%), the UK, CIs & IOM (10.0%) and India (9.1%).

There were 6,440 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during September 2010, an increase of 8.4% compared with September 2009 (5,940 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.