3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Nov 2016 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 16/01/2017   
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MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during November 2016 (708,900 movements) increased 0.4% when compared with October 2016 (706,100 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 9.9% higher than in November 2015.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Short-Term Visitor Arrivals, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during November 2016. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for November 2015 and November 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Malaysia (22.9%), followed by India (20.8%), and South Korea (20.1%).


Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - November 2016
Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Oct '16 to Nov '16
Nov '15 to Nov '16
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change
New Zealand
113.3
111.2
109.2
-0.2
3.0
China
105.3
106.4
96.8
1.1
8.5
United States of America
62.5
61.6
67.9
0.3
15.3
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
58.8
57.9
66.9
-0.4
0.6
Singapore
36.6
36.1
41.9
-0.0
6.5
Japan
35.3
35.7
38.5
1.3
16.3
Malaysia
35.0
33.4
36.3
0.3
22.9
Korea, South
25.5
25.8
26.5
1.5
20.1
India
23.3
23.4
23.6
1.0
20.8
Germany
17.7
17.6
18.9
1.4
9.2
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The December 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than November 2016.
      2 The December 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than November 2016.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STVA Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during November 2016 (826,000 movements) decreased 0.3% when compared with October 2016 (828,400 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 2.4% higher than in November 2015.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Short-Term Resident Departures, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in November 2016. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for November 2015 and November 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Japan (12.3%), followed by India (8.3%), and the United States of America (7.6%).The highest percentage decreases were recorded for UK, CIs & IOM (-9.9%) and Thailand (-7.3%).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - November 2016
Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Oct '16 to Nov '16
Nov '15 to Nov '16
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change
New Zealand
112.0
109.6
103.5
-0.2
3.4
Indonesia
99.9
100.6
90.5
-1.4
3.2
United States of America
92.5
93.3
77.8
1.2
7.6
India
26.9
25.6
41.4
0.1
8.3
Thailand
41.9
42.4
40.4
-1.5
-7.3
China
38.5
38.3
35.7
1.0
6.8
Singapore
31.9
31.4
33.8
-0.2
4.2
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
47.1
47.2
28.0
-0.3
-9.9
Fiji
30.0
29.7
27.9
1.1
0.3
Japan
32.1
32.7
27.3
1.8
12.3
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The December 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than November 2016.
      2 The December 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than November 2016.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STRD Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.