3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, May 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/07/2009   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during May 2009 (474,900 movements) rose 0.3% when compared with April 2009 (473,500 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.3% higher than in May 2008.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during May 2009. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for May 2009 and May 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increases were recorded by Malaysia (37.9%) and Hong Kong (18.6%) while the highest percentage decreases were recorded by Korea (18.3%) and Japan (16.7%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - May 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Apr 09 to May 09
May 08 to May 09
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
93.9
93.1
90.8
-0.2
0.9
United States of America
38.1
39.7
33.1
0.8
0.9
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
56.9
57.4
30.8
1.0
0.1
Singapore
24.6
23.5
23.6
0.8
8.3
Japan
32.5
31.0
22.3
-0.1
-16.7
Malaysia
19.1
18.7
22.0
2.5
37.9
China
31.9
26.4
18.8
-3.4
0.7
India
10.1
9.6
14.1
-2.0
3.3
Korea
15.9
15.0
12.6
1.6
-18.3
Hong Kong
14.4
13.8
9.9
0.9
18.6

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The June seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than May.
      2 The June seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than May.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in May 2009, short-term resident departures (490,700 movements) increased 0.9% compared with April 2009 (486,600 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 1.5% higher than in May 2008.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during May 2009. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for May 2009 and May 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increases was recorded by Indonesia (37.3%) and Malaysia (21.0%) while the highest percentage decreases was recorded by Italy (18.5) and Thailand (12.5%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - May 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Apr 09 to May 09
May 08 to May 09
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
82.7
85.1
63.4
0.6
9.9
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
35.1
35.1
51.3
0.7
-0.1
United States of America
37.0
45.8
49.7
0.4
-9.7
Indonesia
41.9
43.2
40.9
2.9
37.3
Thailand
31.6
32.3
26.1
0.9
-12.5
China
21.1
20.4
20.2
-2.2
-7.5
Singapore
17.9
17.7
17.1
-0.6
-1.2
Malaysia
19.0
18.9
16.6
3.1
21.0
Fiji
19.2
18.6
15.7
-0.8
-2.1
Italy
8.5
9.0
15.3
0.5
-18.5

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The June seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than May.
      2 The June seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than May.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 9 million multiple movements accounting for 40% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 11,440 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during May 2009, a decrease of 13.2% compared with May 2008 (13,180 movements). People born in India accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (14.3%), followed by people born in New Zealand (13.1%), China (10.5%) and the UK, CIs & IOM (10.4%).

There were 6,150 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during May 2009, an increase of 7.3% compared with May 2008 (5,730 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.