3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2016 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/08/2016   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during June 2016 (687,500 movements) increased 0.9% when compared with May 2016 (681,700 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 12.0% higher than in June 2015.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: Short-Term Visitor Arrivals, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during June 2016. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for June 2015 and June 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for South Korea (32.6%), followed by Japan (29.3%), and Indonesia (22.6%).


Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - June 2016

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
May '16 to Jun '16
Jun '15 to Jun '16
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
111.7
115.0
108.7
1.0
1.6
China
101.7
103.8
65.5
1.0
19.7
United States of America
58.1
57.8
53.6
0.5
17.6
Singapore
39.4
37.2
49.6
1.6
21.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
58.7
59.4
28.6
-0.1
2.9
Malaysia
31.0
30.0
26.9
0.3
6.8
India
21.7
21.7
21.6
1.6
14.3
Japan
35.2
35.1
20.2
0.8
29.3
Indonesia
14.8
16.8
20.0
4.9
22.6
Korea, South
23.4
23.7
18.1
-0.1
32.6

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The July 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than June 2016.
      2 The July 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than June 2016.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: What If...Revisions to STVA Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during June 2016 (824,300 movements) increased 0.4% when compared with May 2016 (820,800 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 5.3% higher than in June 2015.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: Short-term resident departures, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in June 2016. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for June 2015 and June 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Japan (28.9%), followed by Indonesia (23.1%), and the United States of America (3.8%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Fiji (-8.0%).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - June 2016

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
May '16 to Jun '16
Jun '15 to Jun '16
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

Indonesia
112.7
116.3
121.7
1.8
23.1
United States of America
86.9
89.5
105.6
0.1
3.8
New Zealand
106.6
109.2
89.3
0.0
0.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
48.8
49.9
85.1
-1.2
1.1
Thailand
47.1
47.3
49.4
1.7
0.4
Italy
15.9
16.6
36.2
0.9
3.4
China
37.3
37.9
34.5
-0.2
2.7
Fiji
26.3
26.6
30.9
-1.6
-8.0
Singapore
31.1
31.9
30.4
0.6
3.3
Japan
31.3
31.2
25.7
1.6
28.9

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The July 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than June 2016.
      2 The July 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than June 2016.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: What if... Revisions to STRD Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.